Closing spread
MIN -6.5
Total
47
Model margin
+0.0est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Vikings
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.045EPA / play+0.038
- 40.6%Success rate46.3%
- -0.025EPA / dropback+0.135
- -0.071EPA / rush-0.119
- 10.3%Explosive rate9.6%
- -5.38CPOE+4.00
- 37.8%Third-down rate39.7%
- 53.0%Red-zone TD rate63.1%
- 1.87Points / drive2.09
- 2.7%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 6–2 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45.5 points. MIN are 2-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 16/27 | 179 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Taylor | 13 | 48 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Ashton Dulin | 2 | 17 | 8.5 | 0 |
| Trey Sermon | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Joe Flacco | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Downs | 6 | 9 | 60 | 0 |
| Alec Pierce | 3 | 3 | 41 | 0 |
| Kylen Granson | 1 | 1 | 22 | 0 |
| Adonai Mitchell | 1 | 1 | 22 | 0 |
| Michael Pittman | 1 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| Jonathan Taylor | 3 | 5 | 11 | 0 |
| Trey Sermon | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Ashton Dulin | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Darnold | 28/34 | 290 | 3 | 2 |
| Justin Jefferson | 1/1 | 22 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Jones | 21 | 64 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Cam Akers | 6 | 46 | 7.7 | 0 |
| Sam Darnold | 4 | 14 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Jordan Addison | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Jefferson | 7 | 9 | 137 | 0 |
| Josh Oliver | 5 | 5 | 58 | 1 |
| Jordan Addison | 5 | 5 | 42 | 1 |
| T.J. Hockenson | 3 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| Aaron Jones | 4 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Brandon Powell | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Trent Sherfield | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Cam Akers | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Jalen Nailor | 1 | 1 | 7 | 1 |
| Johnny Mundt | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
4.41%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.1%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.87
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-2.81
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+0.01