2024 · Week 9

Final

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Joe Flacco

13·21

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Sam Darnold

U.S. Bank Stadium · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

MIN -6.5

Total

47

Model margin

+0.0est.

MIN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Colts

Vikings

Win probability

  • Vikings
  • Colts

How each play moved the game.

Vikings winsColts wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Coltsedge mapVikings
  • -0.045EPA / play+0.038
  • 40.6%Success rate46.3%
  • -0.025EPA / dropback+0.135
  • -0.071EPA / rush-0.119
  • 10.3%Explosive rate9.6%
  • -5.38CPOE+4.00
  • 37.8%Third-down rate39.7%
  • 53.0%Red-zone TD rate63.1%
  • 1.87Points / drive2.09
  • 2.7%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 6–3 since 1999

MIN have won 3 straight. Meetings average 43.3 points. MIN are 2-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7IND @ MIN10–16MIN
2022 · W15IND @ MIN36–39MIN
2020 · W2MIN @ IND11–28IND
2016 · W15IND @ MIN34–6IND
2012 · W2MIN @ IND20–23IND
2008 · W2IND @ MIN18–15IND
2004 · W9MIN @ IND28–31IND
2000 · W17MIN @ IND10–31IND

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultIND–MIN
INDQ1 15:00544Turnover0–0
MINQ1 12:241155Turnover0–0
INDQ1 6:40417Punt0–0
MINQ1 4:26632Punt0–0
INDQ1 0:1535Punt0–0
MINQ2 14:10628Opp touchdown7–0
MINQ2 10:56935Missed field goal7–0
INDQ2 5:46827Missed field goal7–0
MINQ2 1:55644Missed field goal7–0
INDQ2 0:1300End of half7–0
MINQ3 15:00965Touchdown7–7
INDQ3 10:23636Punt7–7
MINQ3 7:531075Touchdown7–14
INDQ3 2:49855Turnover7–14
MINQ4 14:2310Turnover7–14
INDQ4 14:1332Field goal10–14
MINQ4 12:41622Punt10–14
INDQ4 9:22939Turnover on downs10–14
MINQ4 5:20860Touchdown10–21
INDQ4 2:0573Field goal13–21
MINQ4 0:2800End of half13–21

Box score

Individual performances

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco16/2717901

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jonathan Taylor13483.70
Ashton Dulin2178.50
Trey Sermon242.00
Joe Flacco2-1-0.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Josh Downs69600
Alec Pierce33410
Kylen Granson11220
Adonai Mitchell11220
Michael Pittman14140
Jonathan Taylor35110
Trey Sermon1290
Ashton Dulin0200

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Sam Darnold28/3429032
Justin Jefferson1/12200

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Aaron Jones21643.00
Cam Akers6467.70
Sam Darnold4143.50
Jordan Addison199.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Justin Jefferson791370
Josh Oliver55581
Jordan Addison55421
T.J. Hockenson34270
Aaron Jones44180
Brandon Powell1190
Trent Sherfield1170
Cam Akers2270
Jalen Nailor1171
Johnny Mundt0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +6.54.4%2.9%7.4%7.4%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Colts.

Half-point at risk

4.41%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

49.1%

Expected total

43.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.87
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-2.81
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin+0.01