2026 · Week 7

Final

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Daniel Jones

10·16

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Kyler Murray

U.S. Bank Stadium · dome

Closing spread

MIN -6.5

Total

41.5

Model margin

+5.6est.

MIN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Colts

Vikings

Win probability

  • Vikings
  • Colts

How each play moved the game.

Vikings winsColts wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Coltsedge mapVikings
  • -0.063EPA / play-0.099
  • 42.5%Success rate36.7%
  • -0.130EPA / dropback-0.029
  • +0.030EPA / rush-0.195
  • 8.3%Explosive rate7.6%
  • -4.20CPOE+0.39
  • 40.1%Third-down rate38.6%
  • 61.0%Red-zone TD rate46.3%
  • 1.93Points / drive1.65
  • 2.6%Turnover rate1.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 6–3 since 1999

MIN have won 3 straight. Meetings average 43.3 points. MIN are 2-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W9IND @ MIN13–21MIN
2022 · W15IND @ MIN36–39MIN
2020 · W2MIN @ IND11–28IND
2016 · W15IND @ MIN34–6IND
2012 · W2MIN @ IND20–23IND
2008 · W2IND @ MIN18–15IND
2004 · W9MIN @ IND28–31IND
2000 · W17MIN @ IND10–31IND

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultIND–MIN
MINQ1 15:0048Turnover on downs0–0
INDQ1 12:46761Touchdown7–0
MINQ1 9:13516Punt7–0
INDQ1 7:0937Punt7–0
MINQ1 6:131453Field goal7–3
INDQ2 14:5250Punt7–3
MINQ2 12:041167Field goal7–6
INDQ2 6:371639Field goal10–6
INDQ3 15:005-2Punt10–6
MINQ3 11:2135Punt10–6
INDQ3 9:371265Missed field goal10–6
MINQ3 2:15654Touchdown10–13
INDQ4 14:36514Punt10–13
MINQ4 12:22641Missed field goal10–13
INDQ4 8:32621Missed field goal10–13
MINQ4 4:22833Field goal10–16
INDQ4 1:39213Turnover10–16
MINQ4 1:0800End of half10–16

Box score

Individual performances

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Daniel Jones13/2210801

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jonathan Taylor18955.31
Seth McGowan11464.20
Daniel Jones4133.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Keenan Allen33310
Laquon Treadwell22190
Josh Downs24180
Jonathan Taylor23150
Andrew Ogletree22120
Deion Burks11110
Seth McGowan1120
Mo Alie-Cox0200
Will Mallory0300

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kyler Murray14/2415010

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jordan Mason15684.50
Kyler Murray5397.80
Aaron Jones8263.30
Jordan Addison133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Justin Jefferson47440
T.J. Hockenson45351
Jauan Jennings23340
Jordan Addison23200
Gavin Bartholomew11170
Aaron Jones1100
Jordan Mason0200
Tai Felton0100
Max Bredeson0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +6.53.4%6.3%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Colts.

Half-point at risk

4.96%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

63.8%

Expected total

41.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.78
  • Home-field advantage+2.22
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+5.56