Closing spread
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Total
—
Model margin
+18.4est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Coltsedge mapVikings
- -0.225EPA / play+0.055
- 42.6%Success rate37.7%
- -0.409EPA / dropback+0.208
- +0.116EPA / rush-0.125
- 13.0%Explosive rate3.3%
- -5.06CPOE-4.89
- 30.0%Third-down rate57.1%
- 100.0%Red-zone TD rate83.3%
- 1.99Points / drive2.90
- 3.7%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 6–2 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45.5 points. MIN are 2-6 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+15.66
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+18.44