2020 · Week 2

Final

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Kirk Cousins

11·28

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Philip Rivers

Lucas Oil Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

IND -3.5

Total

49

Model margin

+3.0est.

IND perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Vikings

Colts

Win probability

  • Colts
  • Vikings

How each play moved the game.

Colts winsVikings wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Vikingsedge mapColts
  • +0.089EPA / play+0.083
  • 49.1%Success rate46.8%
  • +0.175EPA / dropback+0.181
  • -0.025EPA / rush-0.048
  • 11.4%Explosive rate11.3%
  • +4.45CPOE-0.03
  • 41.2%Third-down rate39.7%
  • 74.1%Red-zone TD rate58.8%
  • 2.30Points / drive2.35
  • 2.1%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 6–3 since 1999

MIN have won 3 straight. Meetings average 43.3 points. IND are 7-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7IND @ MIN10–16MIN
2024 · W9IND @ MIN13–21MIN
2022 · W15IND @ MIN36–39MIN
2016 · W15IND @ MIN34–6IND
2012 · W2MIN @ IND20–23IND
2008 · W2IND @ MIN18–15IND
2004 · W9MIN @ IND28–31IND
2000 · W17MIN @ IND10–31IND

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIN–IND
MINQ1 15:001360Field goal3–0
INDQ1 9:011767Turnover3–0
MINQ2 14:5335Punt3–0
INDQ2 13:14435Touchdown3–7
MINQ2 11:45412Punt3–7
INDQ2 8:56730Punt3–7
MINQ2 5:594-2Safety3–9
INDQ2 4:54758Field goal3–12
MINQ2 1:1030Turnover3–12
INDQ2 0:4539Field goal3–15
MINQ2 0:24322Turnover3–15
INDQ3 15:00613Punt3–15
MINQ3 11:0820Turnover3–15
INDQ3 10:5332Field goal3–18
MINQ3 9:27814Punt3–18
INDQ3 5:251380Touchdown3–25
MINQ4 14:0033Punt3–25
INDQ4 12:30536Field goal3–28
MINQ4 8:47961Touchdown11–28
INDQ4 5:20524End of half11–28

Box score

Individual performances

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kirk Cousins11/2611303

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Dalvin Cook14634.51
Alexander Mattison3134.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Justin Jefferson33440
Adam Thielen38310
Bisi Johnson13240
Dalvin Cook2280
Irv Smith1430
Alexander Mattison1230
Kyle Rudolph0100

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Philip Rivers19/2521411

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jonathan Taylor261013.91
Jordan Wilkins9404.40
Parris Campbell177.00
Philip Rivers430.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mo Alie-Cox561110
Michael Pittman46370
T.Y. Hilton35280
Zach Pascal34191
Jonathan Taylor2290
Ashton Dulin1160
Nyheim Hines1140

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.53.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Vikings.

Half-point at risk

2.54%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.0%

Expected total

47.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.26
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.96