Closing spread
IND -3.5
Total
49
Model margin
+3.0est.
IND perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Colts
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.089EPA / play+0.083
- 49.1%Success rate46.8%
- +0.175EPA / dropback+0.181
- -0.025EPA / rush-0.048
- 11.4%Explosive rate11.3%
- +4.45CPOE-0.03
- 41.2%Third-down rate39.7%
- 74.1%Red-zone TD rate58.8%
- 2.30Points / drive2.35
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 6–2 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45.5 points. IND are 6-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 11/26 | 113 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalvin Cook | 14 | 63 | 4.5 | 1 |
| Alexander Mattison | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Jefferson | 3 | 3 | 44 | 0 |
| Adam Thielen | 3 | 8 | 31 | 0 |
| Bisi Johnson | 1 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Dalvin Cook | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Irv Smith | 1 | 4 | 3 | 0 |
| Alexander Mattison | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Kyle Rudolph | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philip Rivers | 19/25 | 214 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Taylor | 26 | 101 | 3.9 | 1 |
| Jordan Wilkins | 9 | 40 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Parris Campbell | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Philip Rivers | 4 | 3 | 0.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mo Alie-Cox | 5 | 6 | 111 | 0 |
| Michael Pittman | 4 | 6 | 37 | 0 |
| T.Y. Hilton | 3 | 5 | 28 | 0 |
| Zach Pascal | 3 | 4 | 19 | 1 |
| Jonathan Taylor | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Ashton Dulin | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Nyheim Hines | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
2.54%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.0%
Expected total
47.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.26
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.96