Closing spread
IND -3
Total
53.5
Model margin
+9.1est.
IND perspective
Push chance
6.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Colts
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.102EPA / play+0.123
- 44.7%Success rate45.8%
- +0.184EPA / dropback+0.249
- -0.026EPA / rush-0.069
- 10.6%Explosive rate9.0%
- 46.0%Third-down rate46.8%
- 67.4%Red-zone TD rate62.8%
- 2.14Points / drive2.04
- 2.6%Turnover rate2.5%
- +0.083EPA / play allowed+0.005
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 6–3 since 1999
MIN have won 3 straight. Meetings average 43.3 points. IND are 7-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | MIN–IND |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–0 |
| IND | Q1 13:17 | 14 | 70 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| MIN | Q1 7:32 | 8 | 86 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| IND | Q1 3:07 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 7–7 |
| MIN | Q1 1:21 | 8 | 38 | Punt | 7–7 |
| IND | Q2 11:55 | 6 | 87 | Touchdown | 7–14 |
| MIN | Q2 9:12 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 7–14 |
| IND | Q2 7:32 | 3 | 4 | Turnover | 7–14 |
| MIN | Q2 6:26 | 3 | 5 | Field goal | 10–14 |
| IND | Q2 5:04 | 9 | 76 | Touchdown | 10–21 |
| MIN | Q2 1:19 | 4 | 12 | Punt | 10–21 |
| IND | Q2 0:22 | 1 | -1 | End of half | 10–21 |
| IND | Q3 15:00 | 5 | 31 | Punt | 10–21 |
| MIN | Q3 11:01 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 10–21 |
| IND | Q3 10:12 | 7 | 32 | Touchdown | 10–28 |
| MIN | Q3 7:47 | 10 | 37 | Punt | 10–28 |
| IND | Q3 1:27 | 13 | 85 | Field goal | 10–31 |
| MIN | Q4 9:54 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 10–31 |
| IND | Q4 8:15 | 5 | 13 | Punt | 10–31 |
| MIN | Q4 5:08 | 2 | 7 | Turnover | 10–31 |
| IND | Q4 4:20 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 10–31 |
| MIN | Q4 1:52 | 4 | 24 | End of half | 10–31 |
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daunte Culpepper | 7/10 | 97 | 1 | 0 |
| Bubby Brister | 9/18 | 78 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Smith | 15 | 37 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Bubby Brister | 3 | 23 | 7.7 | 0 |
| Jimmy Kleinsasser | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Troy Walters | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Moe Williams | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cris Carter | 4 | 7 | 67 | 0 |
| Randy Moss | 1 | 2 | 42 | 1 |
| Chris Walsh | 4 | 4 | 29 | 0 |
| Andrew Jordan | 2 | 5 | 19 | 0 |
| Jimmy Kleinsasser | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Johnny McWilliams | 2 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| Robert Smith | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 25/36 | 283 | 4 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin James | 26 | 128 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Lennox Gordon | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marvin Harrison | 12 | 16 | 109 | 3 |
| Edgerrin James | 5 | 8 | 79 | 1 |
| Jerome Pathon | 4 | 7 | 47 | 0 |
| Marcus Pollard | 1 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Terrence Wilkins | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
6.89%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
72.3%
Expected total
47.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.36
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+5.14
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+9.06