Closing spread
IND -7
Total
58
Model margin
+4.0est.
IND perspective
Push chance
4.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Colts
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.162EPA / play+0.239
- 50.0%Success rate53.8%
- +0.287EPA / dropback+0.412
- -0.097EPA / rush-0.005
- 10.7%Explosive rate11.3%
- 52.5%Third-down rate44.4%
- 64.5%Red-zone TD rate74.8%
- 2.26Points / drive2.73
- 2.0%Turnover rate1.7%
- +0.107EPA / play allowed+0.033
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 6–3 since 1999
MIN have won 3 straight. Meetings average 43.3 points. IND are 7-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | MIN–IND |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 17 | Punt | 0–0 |
| IND | Q1 12:48 | 8 | 51 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| MIN | Q1 9:09 | 5 | 18 | Punt | 0–7 |
| IND | Q1 6:25 | 13 | 65 | Touchdown | 0–14 |
| MIN | Q2 14:54 | 3 | 6 | Field goal | 3–14 |
| IND | Q2 12:43 | 12 | 59 | Punt | 3–14 |
| MIN | Q2 5:16 | 11 | 92 | Field goal | 6–14 |
| IND | Q3 15:00 | 7 | 32 | Opp touchdown | 14–14 |
| IND | Q3 10:49 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 14–14 |
| MIN | Q3 8:35 | 5 | 13 | Punt | 14–14 |
| IND | Q3 5:20 | 7 | 87 | Touchdown | 14–21 |
| MIN | Q3 2:07 | 10 | 81 | Touchdown | 21–21 |
| IND | Q4 11:27 | 7 | 65 | Touchdown | 21–28 |
| MIN | Q4 7:24 | 8 | 65 | Touchdown | 28–28 |
| IND | Q4 2:54 | 6 | 43 | Field goal | 28–31 |
| MIN | Q4 0:02 | 0 | 0 | Turnover | 28–31 |
| IND | Q4 0:00 | 0 | 0 | Turnover | 28–31 |
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daunte Culpepper | 16/19 | 169 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Onterrio Smith | 13 | 80 | 6.2 | 1 |
| Daunte Culpepper | 5 | 27 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Michael Bennett | 5 | 18 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Moe Williams | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 23/29 | 268 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin James | 26 | 123 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 4 | 20 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Dominic Rhodes | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
4.87%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.6%
Expected total
48.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.38
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.95