Closing spread
MIN -3
Total
45.5
Model margin
+3.1est.
IND perspective
Push chance
6.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Colts
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.011EPA / play+0.035
- 42.1%Success rate45.1%
- +0.030EPA / dropback+0.094
- -0.013EPA / rush-0.077
- 9.7%Explosive rate9.1%
- -2.66CPOE-4.46
- 37.4%Third-down rate42.3%
- 59.6%Red-zone TD rate59.8%
- 1.91Points / drive1.62
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 6–2 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45.5 points. IND are 6-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Ponder | 27/35 | 245 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 16 | 60 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Toby Gerhart | 5 | 15 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Percy Harvin | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Christian Ponder | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Percy Harvin | 12 | 13 | 104 | 0 |
| Michael Jenkins | 5 | 6 | 43 | 0 |
| Kyle Rudolph | 3 | 5 | 35 | 1 |
| Adrian Peterson | 3 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Devin Aromashodu | 1 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Toby Gerhart | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Stephen Burton | 1 | 2 | 7 | 1 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Luck | 20/31 | 224 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Brown | 16 | 45 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Andrew Luck | 4 | 21 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Vick Ballard | 6 | 13 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Donnie Avery | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Dwayne Allen | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Mewelde Moore | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donnie Avery | 9 | 10 | 111 | 0 |
| Reggie Wayne | 6 | 7 | 71 | 1 |
| Coby Fleener | 2 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| T.Y. Hilton | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Mewelde Moore | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Dwayne Allen | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| Kris Adams | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Vick Ballard | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
6.87%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.3%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.57
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.06