2012 · Week 2

Final

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Christian Ponder

20·23

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Andrew Luck

Lucas Oil Stadium · open · fieldturf

Closing spread

MIN -3

Total

45.5

Model margin

+3.1est.

IND perspective

Push chance

6.9%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Vikings

Colts

Win probability

  • Colts
  • Vikings

How each play moved the game.

Colts winsVikings wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Vikingsedge mapColts
  • +0.011EPA / play+0.035
  • 42.1%Success rate45.1%
  • +0.030EPA / dropback+0.094
  • -0.013EPA / rush-0.077
  • 9.7%Explosive rate9.1%
  • -2.66CPOE-4.46
  • 37.4%Third-down rate42.3%
  • 59.6%Red-zone TD rate59.8%
  • 1.91Points / drive1.62
  • 2.2%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 6–3 since 1999

MIN have won 3 straight. Meetings average 43.3 points. IND are 7-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7IND @ MIN10–16MIN
2024 · W9IND @ MIN13–21MIN
2022 · W15IND @ MIN36–39MIN
2020 · W2MIN @ IND11–28IND
2016 · W15IND @ MIN34–6IND
2008 · W2IND @ MIN18–15IND
2004 · W9MIN @ IND28–31IND
2000 · W17MIN @ IND10–31IND

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIN–IND
MINQ1 15:001359Field goal3–0
INDQ1 7:481390Touchdown3–7
MINQ1 0:49846Field goal6–7
INDQ2 11:3837Punt6–7
MINQ2 9:54714Turnover6–7
INDQ2 6:02935Field goal6–10
MINQ2 1:4934Punt6–10
INDQ2 1:11764Touchdown6–17
MINQ2 0:0700End of half6–17
INDQ3 15:001438Field goal6–20
MINQ3 7:06523Punt6–20
INDQ3 4:4533Punt6–20
MINQ3 3:12735Punt6–20
INDQ4 14:4836Punt6–20
MINQ4 13:47417Punt6–20
INDQ4 12:404-1Punt6–20
MINQ4 10:101054Touchdown13–20
INDQ4 5:076-4Punt13–20
MINQ4 2:501042Touchdown20–20
INDQ4 0:31340Field goal20–23
MINQ4 0:08234End of half20–23

Box score

Individual performances

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Christian Ponder27/3524520

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Adrian Peterson16603.80
Toby Gerhart5153.00
Percy Harvin2136.50
Christian Ponder372.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Percy Harvin12131040
Michael Jenkins56430
Kyle Rudolph35351
Adrian Peterson33200
Devin Aromashodu13190
Toby Gerhart23170
Stephen Burton1271

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andrew Luck20/3122420

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Donald Brown16452.80
Andrew Luck4215.30
Vick Ballard6132.20
Donnie Avery273.50
Dwayne Allen100.00
Mewelde Moore1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Donnie Avery9101110
Reggie Wayne67711
Coby Fleener24160
T.Y. Hilton11150
Mewelde Moore1280
Dwayne Allen1131
Kris Adams0300
Vick Ballard0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -33.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%

Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Vikings.

Half-point at risk

6.87%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.3%

Expected total

43.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.57
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.06