2006 · Week 15
Final
Louisiana Superdome · dome · fieldturf
Closing spread
NO -10
Total
47
Model margin
+5.8est.
NO perspective
Push chance
3.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Saints
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.006EPA / play+0.072
- 40.9%Success rate44.8%
- +0.034EPA / dropback+0.157
- -0.052EPA / rush-0.049
- 10.8%Explosive rate9.5%
- -2.46CPOE+2.07
- 38.5%Third-down rate45.7%
- 52.5%Red-zone TD rate63.8%
- 1.58Points / drive1.91
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 6–6 since 1999
Meetings average 55 points. NO are 5-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Campbell | 13/28 | 204 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ladell Betts | 22 | 119 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Antwaan Randle El | 1 | 20 | 20.0 | 0 |
| T.J. Duckett | 4 | 18 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Jason Campbell | 4 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 21/38 | 207 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deuce McAllister | 15 | 48 | 3.2 | 1 |
| Reggie Bush | 7 | 14 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Drew Brees | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
3.32%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
64.4%
Expected total
46.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.86
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+0.38
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.80