Closing spread
NYG -8
Total
43.5
Model margin
+1.8est.
STL perspective
Push chance
1.8%est.
Win probability
- Rams
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 8–7 since 1999
RAMS have won 5 straight. Meetings average 46.7 points. STL are 5-10 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NYG–STL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYG | Q1 15:00 | 5 | 13 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LA | Q1 11:51 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NYG | Q1 10:17 | 7 | 64 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| LA | Q1 6:11 | 12 | 41 | Field goal | 7–3 |
| NYG | Q2 14:13 | 12 | 64 | Field goal | 10–3 |
| LA | Q2 8:14 | 3 | -5 | Punt | 10–3 |
| NYG | Q2 6:15 | 3 | -9 | Punt | 10–3 |
| LA | Q2 4:44 | 6 | 17 | Field goal | 10–6 |
| NYG | Q2 1:55 | 8 | 63 | Field goal | 13–6 |
| LA | Q2 0:02 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 13–6 |
| LA | Q3 15:00 | 4 | 18 | Punt | 13–6 |
| NYG | Q3 13:22 | 10 | 97 | Touchdown | 20–6 |
| LA | Q3 8:48 | 6 | 25 | Punt | 20–6 |
| NYG | Q3 4:34 | 6 | 41 | Punt | 20–6 |
| LA | Q3 0:29 | 11 | 80 | Touchdown | 20–13 |
| NYG | Q4 10:46 | 7 | 72 | Touchdown | 27–13 |
| LA | Q4 7:18 | 6 | 17 | Opp touchdown | 34–13 |
| LA | Q4 5:30 | 4 | 6 | Punt | 34–13 |
| NYG | Q4 4:21 | 3 | 39 | Touchdown | 41–13 |
| LA | Q4 3:23 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 41–13 |
| NYG | Q4 1:59 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 41–13 |
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 20/29 | 260 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Jacobs | 15 | 93 | 6.2 | 0 |
| Derrick Ward | 8 | 58 | 7.3 | 0 |
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 5 | 52 | 10.4 | 1 |
| David Carr | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
1.77%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.8%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.50
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+1.75
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.