Closing spread
NYG -8
Total
43.5
Model margin
+1.8est.
STL perspective
Push chance
1.8%est.
Win probability
- Rams
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
All square 7–7 since 1999
RAMS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 47.6 points. STL are 4-10 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 20/29 | 260 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Jacobs | 15 | 93 | 6.2 | 0 |
| Derrick Ward | 8 | 58 | 7.3 | 0 |
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 5 | 52 | 10.4 | 1 |
| David Carr | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
1.77%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.8%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.50
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+1.75
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.