Closing spread
KC -3.5
Total
36
Model margin
-0.2est.
KC perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
KC lead 35–19 since 1999
Meetings average 44.3 points. KC are 26-27-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Thigpen | 14/33 | 151 | 1 | 1 |
| Damon Huard | 2/4 | 17 | 0 | 1 |
| Marques Hagans | 1/1 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Johnson | 12 | 22 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Damon Huard | 1 | 15 | 15.0 | 0 |
| Jamaal Charles | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Tyler Thigpen | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Kolby Smith | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Marques Hagans | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
2.44%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.5%
Expected total
45.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.24
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-1.55
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin-0.23
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.