Closing spread
DAL -6.5
Total
46.5
Model margin
-1.1est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.004EPA / play-0.018
- 43.8%Success rate41.9%
- +0.039EPA / dropback-0.021
- -0.055EPA / rush-0.015
- 8.3%Explosive rate10.2%
- -1.08CPOE+3.06
- 41.3%Third-down rate43.2%
- 50.9%Red-zone TD rate67.6%
- 1.73Points / drive1.67
- 2.2%Turnover rate3.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 29–27 since 1999
DAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45 points. DAL are 28-27-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | PHI–DAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | Q1 15:00 | 8 | 44 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| DAL | Q1 10:44 | 6 | 86 | Touchdown | 3–7 |
| PHI | Q1 7:46 | 9 | 43 | Field goal | 6–13 |
| DAL | Q1 2:58 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 6–14 |
| PHI | Q1 2:45 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 6–14 |
| DAL | Q1 0:53 | 2 | 1 | Turnover | 6–14 |
| PHI | Q1 0:05 | 2 | 6 | Touchdown | 13–14 |
| DAL | Q2 14:55 | 1 | -3 | Opp touchdown | 20–14 |
| DAL | Q2 14:41 | 8 | 56 | Touchdown | 20–21 |
| PHI | Q2 10:02 | 5 | 72 | Touchdown | 27–21 |
| DAL | Q2 7:38 | 4 | 7 | Punt | 27–21 |
| PHI | Q2 5:42 | 11 | 52 | Field goal | 30–21 |
| DAL | Q2 0:45 | 2 | 45 | Field goal | 30–24 |
| PHI | Q2 0:03 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 30–24 |
| DAL | Q3 15:00 | 5 | 16 | Punt | 30–24 |
| PHI | Q3 12:45 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 30–24 |
| DAL | Q3 11:10 | 9 | 64 | Touchdown | 30–31 |
| PHI | Q3 5:08 | 11 | 71 | Touchdown | 37–31 |
| DAL | Q4 14:17 | 7 | 40 | Field goal | 37–34 |
| PHI | Q4 10:29 | 3 | 12 | Turnover | 37–34 |
| DAL | Q4 8:52 | 8 | 63 | Touchdown | 37–41 |
| PHI | Q4 4:35 | 4 | 12 | Punt | 37–41 |
| DAL | Q4 3:09 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 37–41 |
| PHI | Q4 2:36 | 7 | 12 | Turnover on downs | 37–41 |
| DAL | Q4 0:37 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 37–41 |
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 25/37 | 281 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Westbrook | 18 | 58 | 3.2 | 2 |
| Donovan McNabb | 5 | 20 | 4.0 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Romo | 21/30 | 312 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marion Barber | 18 | 63 | 3.5 | 1 |
| Felix Jones | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Tony Romo | 3 | -5 | -1.7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
4.24%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.1%
Expected total
40.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.58
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.09