Closing spread
PIT -6.5
Total
43.5
Model margin
-2.7est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Browns
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.031EPA / play-0.155
- 42.9%Success rate36.2%
- +0.022EPA / dropback-0.205
- -0.103EPA / rush-0.086
- 7.8%Explosive rate6.7%
- +0.13CPOE-11.69
- 41.3%Third-down rate33.5%
- 54.8%Red-zone TD rate29.2%
- 1.61Points / drive1.05
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 43–14–1 since 1999
Meetings average 39 points. CLE are 26-30-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | PIT–CLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLE | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 0–0 |
| PIT | Q1 13:27 | 6 | 21 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CLE | Q1 9:39 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 0–0 |
| PIT | Q1 8:34 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CLE | Q1 7:25 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–0 |
| PIT | Q1 5:52 | 4 | 22 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CLE | Q1 4:05 | 6 | 17 | Punt | 0–0 |
| PIT | Q1 0:39 | 5 | 21 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CLE | Q2 13:03 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| PIT | Q2 12:55 | 13 | 50 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| CLE | Q2 6:26 | 15 | 71 | Turnover | 7–0 |
| PIT | Q3 15:00 | 5 | 24 | Punt | 7–0 |
| CLE | Q3 11:54 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 7–0 |
| PIT | Q3 10:16 | 4 | 54 | Field goal | 10–0 |
| CLE | Q3 7:58 | 11 | 47 | Field goal | 10–3 |
| PIT | Q3 1:25 | 9 | 43 | Punt | 10–3 |
| CLE | Q4 10:50 | 13 | 60 | Field goal | 10–6 |
| PIT | Q4 3:21 | 8 | 43 | Turnover on downs | 10–6 |
| CLE | Q4 0:26 | 3 | -5 | End of half | 10–6 |
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 12/19 | 186 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willie Parker | 28 | 105 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Santonio Holmes | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Carey Davis | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Anderson | 18/32 | 166 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Lewis | 19 | 38 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Derek Anderson | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Josh Cribbs | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Jerome Harrison | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
3.11%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
41.9%
Expected total
39.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-5.17
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-2.68