Closing spread
DEN -1
Total
46.5
Model margin
+1.7est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Broncos
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
DEN lead 33–23 since 1999
DEN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.8 points. DEN are 26-25-5 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SD–DEN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEN | Q1 15:00 | 6 | 49 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 12:06 | 2 | 1 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| DEN | Q1 11:20 | 5 | 29 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| LAC | Q1 8:41 | 11 | 76 | Field goal | 3–7 |
| DEN | Q1 3:47 | 12 | 77 | Touchdown | 3–14 |
| LAC | Q2 13:48 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 3–14 |
| DEN | Q2 11:15 | 2 | 33 | Touchdown | 9–21 |
| LAC | Q2 10:42 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 10–21 |
| DEN | Q2 10:28 | 9 | 66 | Field goal | 10–24 |
| LAC | Q2 5:53 | 6 | 65 | Touchdown | 17–24 |
| DEN | Q2 2:25 | 13 | 75 | Touchdown | 17–31 |
| LAC | Q2 0:02 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 17–31 |
| LAC | Q3 15:00 | 8 | 59 | Touchdown | 24–31 |
| DEN | Q3 10:44 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 24–31 |
| LAC | Q3 9:30 | 5 | 75 | Field goal | 27–31 |
| DEN | Q3 7:29 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 27–31 |
| LAC | Q3 5:23 | 14 | 64 | Field goal | 30–31 |
| DEN | Q4 14:08 | 16 | 67 | Turnover | 30–31 |
| LAC | Q4 5:29 | 3 | 91 | Touchdown | 38–31 |
| DEN | Q4 4:22 | 12 | 80 | Touchdown | 38–39 |
| LAC | Q4 0:24 | 3 | 25 | End of half | 38–39 |
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Cutler | 36/50 | 350 | 4 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Selvin Young | 8 | 78 | 9.8 | 0 |
| Andre Hall | 7 | 31 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Michael Pittman | 7 | 30 | 4.3 | 1 |
| Jay Cutler | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.6%
Expected total
46.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.73
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+1.68
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.