Closing spread
SEA -6.5
Total
38
Model margin
+3.9est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Seahawks
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.056EPA / play-0.057
- 43.6%Success rate37.8%
- -0.002EPA / dropback-0.022
- -0.150EPA / rush-0.103
- 8.4%Explosive rate7.7%
- +1.59CPOE-5.09
- 37.4%Third-down rate31.4%
- 53.3%Red-zone TD rate54.9%
- 1.64Points / drive1.56
- 3.5%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 31–21 since 1999
Meetings average 42.6 points. SEA are 29-22-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SF–SEA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 0–0 |
| SF | Q1 13:40 | 4 | 14 | Punt | 0–0 |
| SEA | Q1 11:53 | 8 | 60 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| SF | Q1 9:12 | 4 | -15 | Opp touchdown | 0–14 |
| SF | Q1 7:47 | 9 | 39 | Field goal | 3–14 |
| SEA | Q1 2:36 | 8 | 40 | Punt | 3–14 |
| SF | Q2 13:15 | 11 | 70 | Field goal | 6–14 |
| SEA | Q2 7:22 | 1 | 31 | Turnover | 6–14 |
| SF | Q2 7:01 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 6–14 |
| SEA | Q2 4:52 | 5 | 18 | Field goal | 6–17 |
| SF | Q2 2:49 | 6 | 74 | Touchdown | 13–17 |
| SEA | Q2 1:42 | 6 | 41 | Field goal | 13–20 |
| SF | Q3 15:00 | 4 | 2 | Punt | 13–20 |
| SEA | Q3 13:05 | 9 | 43 | Opp touchdown | 20–20 |
| SEA | Q3 8:46 | 3 | 0 | Turnover | 20–20 |
| SF | Q3 8:27 | 4 | 41 | Touchdown | 27–20 |
| SEA | Q3 6:41 | 15 | 74 | Touchdown | 27–27 |
| SF | Q4 14:20 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 27–27 |
| SEA | Q4 11:53 | 8 | 41 | Field goal | 27–30 |
| SF | Q4 7:41 | 13 | 49 | Field goal | 30–30 |
| SEA | Q4 2:42 | 5 | 0 | Punt | 30–30 |
| SF | Q4 1:09 | 2 | 26 | Missed field goal | 30–30 |
| SF | OT | 10 | 52 | Field goal | 33–30 |
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.T. O'Sullivan | 20/32 | 321 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 19 | 61 | 3.2 | 1 |
| J.T. O'Sullivan | 4 | 32 | 8.0 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 18/36 | 189 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julius Jones | 26 | 127 | 4.9 | 1 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
| T.J. Duckett | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
4.87%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.6%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.18
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+1.64
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.94