Closing spread
SEA -6.5
Total
38
Model margin
+3.9est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Seahawks
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.056EPA / play-0.057
- 43.6%Success rate37.8%
- -0.002EPA / dropback-0.022
- -0.150EPA / rush-0.103
- 8.4%Explosive rate7.7%
- +1.59CPOE-5.09
- 37.4%Third-down rate31.4%
- 53.3%Red-zone TD rate54.9%
- 1.64Points / drive1.56
- 3.5%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 31–20 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.2 points. SEA are 29-21-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.T. O'Sullivan | 20/32 | 321 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 19 | 61 | 3.2 | 1 |
| J.T. O'Sullivan | 4 | 32 | 8.0 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 18/36 | 189 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julius Jones | 26 | 127 | 4.9 | 1 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
| T.J. Duckett | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
4.87%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.6%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.18
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+1.64
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.94