Closing spread
CIN -1
Total
37
Model margin
+3.0est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Bengals
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.003EPA / play-0.172
- 41.7%Success rate38.0%
- +0.037EPA / dropback-0.150
- -0.044EPA / rush-0.208
- 9.0%Explosive rate5.1%
- -2.44CPOE-3.29
- 36.7%Third-down rate35.3%
- 64.5%Red-zone TD rate45.7%
- 1.83Points / drive0.93
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 10–9 since 1999
Meetings average 43.3 points. CIN are 12-6-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | TEN–CIN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 0–0 |
| TEN | Q1 13:30 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CIN | Q1 12:04 | 9 | 33 | Punt | 0–0 |
| TEN | Q1 7:22 | 5 | 12 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CIN | Q1 5:08 | 5 | 12 | Punt | 0–0 |
| TEN | Q1 1:43 | 12 | 64 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| CIN | Q2 11:06 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 7–0 |
| TEN | Q2 9:33 | 3 | -9 | Punt | 7–0 |
| CIN | Q2 7:55 | 11 | 63 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| TEN | Q2 3:16 | 7 | 85 | Touchdown | 14–7 |
| CIN | Q2 0:38 | 2 | 49 | End of half | 14–7 |
| TEN | Q3 15:00 | 4 | 7 | Turnover | 14–7 |
| CIN | Q3 13:25 | 7 | 22 | Missed field goal | 14–7 |
| TEN | Q3 10:04 | 9 | 56 | Field goal | 17–7 |
| CIN | Q3 4:49 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 17–7 |
| TEN | Q3 2:38 | 4 | 20 | Punt | 17–7 |
| CIN | Q3 0:36 | 4 | 2 | Opp touchdown | 24–7 |
| CIN | Q4 14:05 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 24–7 |
| TEN | Q4 13:09 | 4 | 19 | Punt | 24–7 |
| CIN | Q4 10:25 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 24–7 |
| TEN | Q4 10:17 | 6 | 14 | Punt | 24–7 |
| CIN | Q4 6:57 | 4 | 9 | Turnover | 24–7 |
| TEN | Q4 5:13 | 7 | 27 | Turnover on downs | 24–7 |
| CIN | Q4 1:08 | 3 | 10 | End of half | 24–7 |
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerry Collins | 14/21 | 128 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Johnson | 19 | 109 | 5.7 | 0 |
| LenDale White | 18 | 59 | 3.3 | 1 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 16/27 | 134 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Perry | 21 | 64 | 3.0 | 1 |
| Kenny Watson | 4 | 14 | 3.5 | 0 |
| DeDe Dorsey | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
2.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.0%
Expected total
41.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.01
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+2.49
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.96