2011 · Week 9

Final

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Andy Dalton

24·17

Titans

Tennessee

QB Matt Hasselbeck

LP Field · outdoors · grass · 68°F · wind 13mph

Closing spread

TEN -1.5

Total

41.5

Model margin

+2.6est.

TEN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bengals

Titans

Win probability

  • Titans
  • Bengals

How each play moved the game.

Titans winsBengals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bengalsedge mapTitans
  • -0.030EPA / play-0.046
  • 41.7%Success rate39.2%
  • +0.005EPA / dropback+0.025
  • -0.080EPA / rush-0.170
  • 8.4%Explosive rate8.7%
  • -2.19CPOE-1.91
  • 35.5%Third-down rate35.9%
  • 53.1%Red-zone TD rate68.0%
  • 1.55Points / drive1.51
  • 1.8%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TEN lead 10–9 since 1999

Meetings average 43.3 points. TEN are 6-12-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W15CIN @ TEN37–27CIN
2023 · W4CIN @ TEN3–27TEN
2022 · W12CIN @ TEN20–16CIN
2021 · playoffsCIN @ TEN19–16CIN
2020 · W8TEN @ CIN20–31CIN
2017 · W10CIN @ TEN20–24TEN
2014 · W3TEN @ CIN7–33CIN
2008 · W2TEN @ CIN24–7TEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCIN–TEN
TENQ1 15:0034Punt0–0
CINQ1 13:31511Punt0–0
TENQ1 11:33970Field goal0–3
CINQ1 7:20735Punt0–3
TENQ1 2:4635Punt0–3
CINQ1 1:141178Touchdown7–3
TENQ2 10:411063Touchdown7–10
CINQ2 5:18716Punt7–10
TENQ2 2:551391Touchdown7–17
CINQ2 0:0800End of half7–17
CINQ3 15:0032Punt7–17
TENQ3 13:4344Punt7–17
CINQ3 11:35834Punt7–17
TENQ3 8:3836Punt7–17
CINQ3 7:29420Touchdown14–17
TENQ3 6:337-2Punt14–17
CINQ3 2:471595Touchdown21–17
TENQ4 10:52426Punt21–17
CINQ4 8:44922Punt21–17
TENQ4 4:4930Punt21–17
CINQ4 4:2934Punt21–17
TENQ4 4:0418Turnover21–17
CINQ4 3:4933Field goal24–17
TENQ4 1:55853End of half24–17

Box score

Individual performances

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andy Dalton22/3921730

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Cedric Benson20783.90
Bernard Scott6244.00
Andy Dalton341.30
Brian Leonard133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
A.J. Green77830
Donald Lee34490
Jerome Simpson310431
Andre Caldwell59221
Colin Cochart2271
Brian Leonard0200
Bernard Scott0100

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Hasselbeck24/4127220

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Johnson14644.60
Javon Ringer4112.80
Matt Hasselbeck231.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Lavelle Hawkins57631
Jared Cook48470
Chris Johnson46460
Damian Williams47341
Nate Washington36280
Craig Stevens11250
Javon Ringer12140
Marc Mariani1160
Donnie Avery0100
Jamie Harper0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +1.54.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%2.7%

Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Bengals.

Half-point at risk

2.13%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.9%

Expected total

42.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.07
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.56