Closing spread
TEN -1.5
Total
41.5
Model margin
+2.6est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Titans
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.030EPA / play-0.046
- 41.7%Success rate39.2%
- +0.005EPA / dropback+0.025
- -0.080EPA / rush-0.170
- 8.4%Explosive rate8.7%
- -2.19CPOE-1.91
- 35.5%Third-down rate35.9%
- 53.1%Red-zone TD rate68.0%
- 1.55Points / drive1.51
- 1.8%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 10–9 since 1999
Meetings average 43.3 points. TEN are 6-12-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 22/39 | 217 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cedric Benson | 20 | 78 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Bernard Scott | 6 | 24 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Andy Dalton | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Brian Leonard | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Green | 7 | 7 | 83 | 0 |
| Donald Lee | 3 | 4 | 49 | 0 |
| Jerome Simpson | 3 | 10 | 43 | 1 |
| Andre Caldwell | 5 | 9 | 22 | 1 |
| Colin Cochart | 2 | 2 | 7 | 1 |
| Brian Leonard | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Bernard Scott | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 24/41 | 272 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Johnson | 14 | 64 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Javon Ringer | 4 | 11 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lavelle Hawkins | 5 | 7 | 63 | 1 |
| Jared Cook | 4 | 8 | 47 | 0 |
| Chris Johnson | 4 | 6 | 46 | 0 |
| Damian Williams | 4 | 7 | 34 | 1 |
| Nate Washington | 3 | 6 | 28 | 0 |
| Craig Stevens | 1 | 1 | 25 | 0 |
| Javon Ringer | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Marc Mariani | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Donnie Avery | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jamie Harper | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.9%
Expected total
42.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.07
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.56