2008 · Week 3
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 75°F · wind 1mph
Closing spread
WAS -3
Total
43.5
Model margin
+2.8est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Commanders
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.052EPA / play-0.032
- 45.0%Success rate42.3%
- +0.144EPA / dropback+0.004
- -0.140EPA / rush-0.080
- 8.6%Explosive rate7.5%
- +5.02CPOE-1.49
- 43.3%Third-down rate36.0%
- 58.6%Red-zone TD rate55.0%
- 2.12Points / drive1.37
- 2.8%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
WAS lead 14–4 since 1999
WAS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 38.9 points. WAS are 10-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kurt Warner | 16/30 | 192 | 2 | 1 |
| Jerheme Urban | 1/1 | 18 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin James | 18 | 93 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Tim Hightower | 5 | 23 | 4.6 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Campbell | 22/30 | 193 | 2 | 0 |
| Antwaan Randle El | 1/1 | 11 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clinton Portis | 21 | 68 | 3.2 | 1 |
| Jason Campbell | 4 | 26 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Ladell Betts | 4 | 23 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Devin Thomas | 1 | 16 | 16.0 | 0 |
| Mike Sellers | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.6%
Expected total
43.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.33
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.82