2008 · Week 3
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 75°F · wind 1mph
Closing spread
WAS -3
Total
43.5
Model margin
+2.8est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Commanders
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.052EPA / play-0.032
- 45.0%Success rate42.3%
- +0.144EPA / dropback+0.004
- -0.140EPA / rush-0.080
- 8.6%Explosive rate7.5%
- +5.02CPOE-1.49
- 43.3%Third-down rate36.0%
- 58.6%Red-zone TD rate55.0%
- 2.12Points / drive1.37
- 2.8%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
WAS lead 14–4 since 1999
WAS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 38.9 points. WAS are 10-8 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | ARI–WAS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WAS | Q1 15:00 | 11 | 65 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| ARI | Q1 8:28 | 7 | 34 | Punt | 0–7 |
| WAS | Q1 3:37 | 9 | 16 | Punt | 0–7 |
| ARI | Q1 0:03 | 1 | 5 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| WAS | Q2 15:00 | 4 | 14 | Field goal | 0–10 |
| ARI | Q2 13:08 | 5 | 19 | Punt | 0–10 |
| WAS | Q2 10:10 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 0–10 |
| ARI | Q2 9:03 | 13 | 82 | Touchdown | 7–10 |
| WAS | Q2 2:43 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 7–10 |
| ARI | Q2 1:12 | 6 | 18 | End of half | 7–10 |
| ARI | Q3 15:00 | 14 | 52 | Field goal | 10–10 |
| WAS | Q3 9:20 | 11 | 80 | Touchdown | 10–17 |
| ARI | Q3 3:16 | 3 | 85 | Touchdown | 17–17 |
| WAS | Q3 1:53 | 6 | 27 | Punt | 17–17 |
| ARI | Q4 14:21 | 3 | -3 | Turnover | 17–17 |
| WAS | Q4 12:58 | 2 | 15 | Touchdown | 17–24 |
| ARI | Q4 12:10 | 4 | 15 | Punt | 17–24 |
| WAS | Q4 9:55 | 13 | 56 | Missed field goal | 17–24 |
| WAS | Q4 3:29 | 0 | 0 | Missed field goal | 17–24 |
| ARI | Q4 3:23 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 17–24 |
| WAS | Q4 2:33 | 3 | 15 | End of half | 17–24 |
| WAS | Q4 1:59 | 1 | 26 | End of half | 17–24 |
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kurt Warner | 16/30 | 192 | 2 | 1 |
| Jerheme Urban | 1/1 | 18 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin James | 18 | 93 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Tim Hightower | 5 | 23 | 4.6 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Campbell | 22/30 | 193 | 2 | 0 |
| Antwaan Randle El | 1/1 | 11 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clinton Portis | 21 | 68 | 3.2 | 1 |
| Jason Campbell | 4 | 26 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Ladell Betts | 4 | 23 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Devin Thomas | 1 | 16 | 16.0 | 0 |
| Mike Sellers | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.6%
Expected total
43.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.33
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.82