Closing spread
MIN -3
Total
37.5
Model margin
+3.2est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Vikings
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.066EPA / play-0.039
- 42.5%Success rate40.9%
- +0.073EPA / dropback+0.001
- +0.059EPA / rush-0.081
- 11.3%Explosive rate9.0%
- -1.27CPOE-2.18
- 40.0%Third-down rate39.7%
- 66.7%Red-zone TD rate53.5%
- 1.98Points / drive1.59
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 9–6 since 1999
MIN have won 3 straight. Meetings average 42.3 points. MIN are 8-7 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | CAR–MIN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | Q1 15:00 | 4 | 22 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| MIN | Q1 12:53 | 4 | 15 | Punt | 3–0 |
| CAR | Q1 10:25 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 3–0 |
| MIN | Q1 9:42 | 3 | 21 | Turnover | 3–0 |
| CAR | Q1 9:05 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 3–0 |
| MIN | Q1 6:57 | 5 | 23 | Punt | 3–0 |
| CAR | Q1 4:02 | 5 | 22 | Turnover | 3–0 |
| MIN | Q1 1:24 | 3 | -8 | Punt | 3–0 |
| CAR | Q1 0:43 | 12 | 69 | Touchdown | 10–0 |
| MIN | Q2 9:55 | 16 | 74 | Field goal | 10–3 |
| CAR | Q2 1:46 | 3 | -8 | Opp touchdown | 10–10 |
| CAR | Q2 1:04 | 3 | 15 | End of half | 10–10 |
| MIN | Q3 15:00 | 5 | 85 | Touchdown | 10–17 |
| CAR | Q3 12:53 | 5 | 23 | Punt | 10–17 |
| MIN | Q3 9:34 | 3 | -8 | Punt | 10–17 |
| CAR | Q3 7:43 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 10–17 |
| MIN | Q3 5:41 | 21 | 90 | Field goal | 10–20 |
| CAR | Q4 9:07 | 4 | 17 | Punt | 10–20 |
| MIN | Q4 6:21 | 5 | 16 | Punt | 10–20 |
| CAR | Q4 4:26 | 8 | 13 | Turnover on downs | 10–20 |
| MIN | Q4 2:34 | 1 | 2 | Turnover on downs | 10–20 |
| CAR | Q4 0:33 | 3 | 18 | End of half | 10–20 |
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Delhomme | 17/29 | 191 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAngelo Williams | 10 | 27 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 7 | 15 | 2.1 | 1 |
| Nick Goings | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Jake Delhomme | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gus Frerotte | 16/28 | 204 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 17 | 77 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Chester Taylor | 11 | 44 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Gus Frerotte | 4 | -2 | -0.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.8%
Expected total
45.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.75
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.24