2008 · Week 3

Final

Panthers

Carolina

QB Jake Delhomme

10·20

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Gus Frerotte

Hubert H. Humphrey Metrodome · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

MIN -3

Total

37.5

Model margin

+3.2est.

MIN perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Vikings
  • Panthers

How each play moved the game.

Vikings winsPanthers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Panthersedge mapVikings
  • +0.066EPA / play-0.039
  • 42.5%Success rate40.9%
  • +0.073EPA / dropback+0.001
  • +0.059EPA / rush-0.081
  • 11.3%Explosive rate9.0%
  • -1.27CPOE-2.18
  • 40.0%Third-down rate39.7%
  • 66.7%Red-zone TD rate53.5%
  • 1.98Points / drive1.59
  • 2.0%Turnover rate2.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 9–6 since 1999

MIN have won 3 straight. Meetings average 42.3 points. MIN are 8-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W4MIN @ CAR21–13MIN
2021 · W6MIN @ CAR34–28MIN
2020 · W12CAR @ MIN27–28MIN
2017 · W14MIN @ CAR24–31CAR
2016 · W3MIN @ CAR22–10MIN
2014 · W13CAR @ MIN13–31MIN
2013 · W6CAR @ MIN35–10CAR
2011 · W8MIN @ CAR24–21MIN

Box score

Individual performances

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jake Delhomme17/2919100

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
DeAngelo Williams10272.70
Jonathan Stewart7152.11
Nick Goings122.00
Jake Delhomme100.00

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Gus Frerotte16/2820411

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Adrian Peterson17774.50
Chester Taylor11444.00
Gus Frerotte4-2-0.50

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Panthers.

Half-point at risk

7.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.8%

Expected total

45.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.75
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.24