2008 · Week 3 · Division

Final

Browns

Cleveland

QB Derek Anderson

10·28

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Joe Flacco

M&T Bank Stadium · outdoors · sportturf · 77°F · wind 2mph

Closing spread

BAL -2.5

Total

37

Model margin

+8.4est.

BAL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Ravens
  • Browns

How each play moved the game.

Ravens winsBrowns wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Brownsedge mapRavens
  • -0.155EPA / play-0.018
  • 36.2%Success rate40.6%
  • -0.205EPA / dropback-0.007
  • -0.086EPA / rush-0.027
  • 6.7%Explosive rate7.9%
  • -11.69CPOE-0.33
  • 33.5%Third-down rate41.3%
  • 29.2%Red-zone TD rate50.4%
  • 1.05Points / drive1.61
  • 2.6%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 39–15 since 1999

BAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 40.6 points. BAL are 29-24-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W11BAL @ CLE23–16BAL
2025 · W2CLE @ BAL17–41BAL
2024 · W18CLE @ BAL10–35BAL
2024 · W8BAL @ CLE24–29CLE
2023 · W10CLE @ BAL33–31CLE
2023 · W4BAL @ CLE28–3BAL
2022 · W15BAL @ CLE3–13CLE
2022 · W7CLE @ BAL20–23BAL

Box score

Individual performances

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Derek Anderson14/3712513

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jamal Lewis12564.70
Jason Wright11111.00
Derek Anderson122.00

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco13/1912902

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Willis McGahee15644.31
Ray Rice5214.20
Joe Flacco6-2-0.30

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.52.8%5.5%7.0%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.4%2.8%

Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Browns.

Half-point at risk

7.02%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

70.9%

Expected total

39.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+5.39
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+8.43