Closing spread
BAL -2.5
Total
37
Model margin
+8.4est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Ravens
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.155EPA / play-0.018
- 36.2%Success rate40.6%
- -0.205EPA / dropback-0.007
- -0.086EPA / rush-0.027
- 6.7%Explosive rate7.9%
- -11.69CPOE-0.33
- 33.5%Third-down rate41.3%
- 29.2%Red-zone TD rate50.4%
- 1.05Points / drive1.61
- 2.6%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 39–16 since 1999
Meetings average 40.2 points. BAL are 29-25-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | CLE–BAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAL | Q1 15:00 | 7 | 56 | Missed field goal | 0–0 |
| CLE | Q1 10:05 | 6 | 24 | Punt | 0–0 |
| BAL | Q1 7:35 | 8 | 33 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| CLE | Q1 3:06 | 7 | 52 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| BAL | Q2 14:52 | 6 | 20 | Turnover | 7–0 |
| CLE | Q2 11:54 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 7–0 |
| BAL | Q2 10:55 | 8 | 48 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| CLE | Q2 6:40 | 12 | 55 | Field goal | 10–7 |
| BAL | Q2 1:04 | 3 | 12 | Punt | 10–7 |
| CLE | Q2 0:34 | 5 | 9 | Punt | 10–7 |
| CLE | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 7 | Turnover | 10–7 |
| BAL | Q3 13:30 | 4 | 12 | Touchdown | 10–14 |
| CLE | Q3 11:13 | 3 | 4 | Opp touchdown | 10–21 |
| CLE | Q3 10:23 | 4 | 5 | Punt | 10–21 |
| BAL | Q3 7:57 | 5 | 35 | Touchdown | 10–28 |
| CLE | Q3 4:49 | 7 | 14 | Punt | 10–28 |
| BAL | Q3 1:58 | 5 | 12 | Punt | 10–28 |
| CLE | Q4 14:49 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 10–28 |
| BAL | Q4 14:03 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 10–28 |
| CLE | Q4 11:54 | 3 | -9 | Punt | 10–28 |
| BAL | Q4 11:03 | 14 | 51 | Turnover on downs | 10–28 |
| CLE | Q4 1:51 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 10–28 |
| BAL | Q4 1:46 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 10–28 |
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Anderson | 14/37 | 125 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Lewis | 12 | 56 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Jason Wright | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Derek Anderson | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 13/19 | 129 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willis McGahee | 15 | 64 | 4.3 | 1 |
| Ray Rice | 5 | 21 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Joe Flacco | 6 | -2 | -0.3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
7.02%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
70.9%
Expected total
39.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+5.39
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+8.43