Closing spread
DAL -3
Total
51
Model margin
+5.4est.
GB perspective
Push chance
6.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Packers
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.018EPA / play+0.051
- 41.9%Success rate43.8%
- -0.021EPA / dropback+0.134
- -0.015EPA / rush-0.072
- 10.2%Explosive rate8.3%
- +3.06CPOE+4.24
- 43.2%Third-down rate44.1%
- 67.6%Red-zone TD rate66.2%
- 1.67Points / drive1.94
- 3.1%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 11–4–1 since 1999
Meetings average 55.8 points. GB are 10-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Romo | 17/30 | 260 | 1 | 1 |
| Patrick Crayton | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marion Barber | 28 | 142 | 5.1 | 1 |
| Felix Jones | 6 | 76 | 12.7 | 1 |
| Tony Romo | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 22/39 | 290 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Grant | 13 | 54 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Brandon Jackson | 3 | 20 | 6.7 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 5 | 10 | 2.0 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
6.34%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.3%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.79
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+5.36