Closing spread
DAL -3
Total
51
Model margin
+5.4est.
GB perspective
Push chance
6.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Packers
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.018EPA / play+0.051
- 41.9%Success rate43.8%
- -0.021EPA / dropback+0.134
- -0.015EPA / rush-0.072
- 10.2%Explosive rate8.3%
- +3.06CPOE+4.24
- 43.2%Third-down rate44.1%
- 67.6%Red-zone TD rate66.2%
- 1.67Points / drive1.94
- 3.1%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 12–4–1 since 1999
Meetings average 54.6 points. GB are 11-6 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | DAL–GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GB | Q1 15:00 | 2 | 9 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| DAL | Q1 14:39 | 3 | 7 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| GB | Q1 13:14 | 9 | 56 | Field goal | 3–3 |
| DAL | Q1 8:02 | 16 | 67 | Turnover | 3–3 |
| GB | Q1 0:01 | 6 | 31 | Field goal | 3–6 |
| DAL | Q2 12:38 | 5 | 9 | Punt | 3–6 |
| GB | Q2 10:02 | 4 | 15 | Punt | 3–6 |
| DAL | Q2 7:53 | 4 | 88 | Touchdown | 10–6 |
| GB | Q2 6:04 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 10–6 |
| DAL | Q2 4:21 | 9 | 29 | Field goal | 13–6 |
| GB | Q2 0:07 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 13–6 |
| DAL | Q3 15:00 | 5 | 21 | Punt | 13–6 |
| GB | Q3 12:31 | 10 | 73 | Field goal | 13–9 |
| DAL | Q3 5:58 | 5 | 80 | Touchdown | 20–9 |
| GB | Q3 2:53 | 3 | -5 | Punt | 20–9 |
| DAL | Q3 1:37 | 3 | -5 | Punt | 20–9 |
| GB | Q3 0:21 | 5 | 22 | Punt | 20–9 |
| DAL | Q4 12:58 | 9 | 90 | Touchdown | 27–9 |
| GB | Q4 9:09 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 27–9 |
| DAL | Q4 8:33 | 5 | 59 | Turnover | 27–9 |
| GB | Q4 5:34 | 14 | 91 | Touchdown | 27–16 |
| DAL | Q4 2:11 | 4 | 9 | Turnover on downs | 27–16 |
| GB | Q4 1:52 | 9 | 35 | Turnover on downs | 27–16 |
| DAL | Q4 0:10 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 27–16 |
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Romo | 17/30 | 260 | 1 | 1 |
| Patrick Crayton | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marion Barber | 28 | 142 | 5.1 | 1 |
| Felix Jones | 6 | 76 | 12.7 | 1 |
| Tony Romo | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 22/39 | 290 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Grant | 13 | 54 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Brandon Jackson | 3 | 20 | 6.7 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 5 | 10 | 2.0 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
6.34%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.3%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.79
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+5.36