Closing spread
SF -5
Total
47
Model margin
+3.2est.
SF perspective
Push chance
2.0%est.
Win probability
- 49ers
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.162EPA / play-0.056
- 36.3%Success rate43.6%
- -0.203EPA / dropback-0.002
- -0.092EPA / rush-0.150
- 8.2%Explosive rate8.4%
- -3.61CPOE+1.59
- 28.7%Third-down rate37.4%
- 72.0%Red-zone TD rate53.3%
- 1.21Points / drive1.64
- 2.9%Turnover rate3.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 10–2 since 1999
Meetings average 48.8 points. SF are 4-7-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Kitna | 15/30 | 146 | 1 | 1 |
| Dan Orlovsky | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rudi Johnson | 14 | 83 | 5.9 | 0 |
| Jon Kitna | 3 | 19 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Kevin Smith | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.T. O'Sullivan | 16/23 | 189 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 27 | 130 | 4.8 | 1 |
| J.T. O'Sullivan | 8 | 32 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Arnaz Battle | 1 | 18 | 18.0 | 0 |
| DeShaun Foster | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
1.96%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.6%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.02
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-3.32
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.19