Closing spread
TEN -5
Total
40
Model margin
+2.7est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
1.9%est.
Win probability
- Titans
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.037EPA / play-0.003
- 45.3%Success rate41.7%
- +0.069EPA / dropback+0.037
- -0.012EPA / rush-0.044
- 9.6%Explosive rate9.0%
- +3.93CPOE-2.44
- 42.2%Third-down rate36.7%
- 52.0%Red-zone TD rate64.5%
- 1.91Points / drive1.83
- 2.9%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 24–24 since 1999
HOU have won 3 straight. Meetings average 43.7 points. TEN are 19-28-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Schaub | 17/37 | 188 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Slaton | 18 | 116 | 6.4 | 1 |
| Chris Taylor | 6 | 15 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Matt Schaub | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Kevin Walter | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerry Collins | 14/26 | 189 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Johnson | 16 | 74 | 4.6 | 0 |
| LenDale White | 16 | 49 | 3.1 | 2 |
| Kerry Collins | 3 | 30 | 10.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
1.95%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.2%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.74
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+2.67