Closing spread
IND -4
Total
42
Model margin
+6.8est.
IND perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Colts
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.004EPA / play+0.114
- 44.6%Success rate48.1%
- +0.013EPA / dropback+0.230
- -0.032EPA / rush-0.087
- 8.0%Explosive rate6.4%
- +3.08CPOE+4.76
- 41.7%Third-down rate50.8%
- 62.2%Red-zone TD rate68.4%
- 1.65Points / drive2.14
- 2.2%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 27–22 since 1999
JAX have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. IND are 17-31-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Garrard | 16/22 | 167 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Taylor | 26 | 121 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 19 | 107 | 5.6 | 1 |
| David Garrard | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Reggie Williams | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 15/29 | 216 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joseph Addai | 16 | 78 | 4.9 | 2 |
| Dominic Rhodes | 2 | 24 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
2.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
66.8%
Expected total
45.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.28
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.76