Closing spread
IND -4
Total
42
Model margin
+6.8est.
IND perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Colts
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.004EPA / play+0.114
- 44.6%Success rate48.1%
- +0.013EPA / dropback+0.230
- -0.032EPA / rush-0.087
- 8.0%Explosive rate6.4%
- +3.08CPOE+4.76
- 41.7%Third-down rate50.8%
- 62.2%Red-zone TD rate68.4%
- 1.65Points / drive2.14
- 2.2%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 27–23 since 1999
JAX have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.4 points. IND are 17-32-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | JAX–IND |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IND | Q1 15:00 | 7 | 72 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| JAX | Q1 11:03 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–7 |
| IND | Q1 9:28 | 8 | 39 | Punt | 0–7 |
| JAX | Q1 4:42 | 13 | 85 | Field goal | 3–7 |
| IND | Q2 12:33 | 3 | 10 | Punt | 3–7 |
| JAX | Q2 11:34 | 9 | 70 | Turnover on downs | 3–7 |
| IND | Q2 6:12 | 3 | 42 | Opp touchdown | 10–7 |
| IND | Q2 5:10 | 12 | 68 | Touchdown | 10–14 |
| JAX | Q2 1:28 | 2 | 3 | End of half | 10–14 |
| JAX | Q3 15:00 | 14 | 42 | Turnover | 10–14 |
| IND | Q3 6:19 | 3 | 12 | Turnover | 10–14 |
| JAX | Q3 5:16 | 7 | 71 | Touchdown | 17–14 |
| IND | Q3 1:17 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 17–14 |
| JAX | Q4 14:51 | 18 | 92 | Field goal | 20–14 |
| IND | Q4 2:33 | 11 | 77 | Touchdown | 20–21 |
| JAX | Q4 1:07 | 7 | 36 | Field goal | 23–21 |
| IND | Q4 0:04 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 23–21 |
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Garrard | 16/22 | 167 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Taylor | 26 | 121 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 19 | 107 | 5.6 | 1 |
| David Garrard | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Reggie Williams | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 15/29 | 216 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joseph Addai | 16 | 78 | 4.9 | 2 |
| Dominic Rhodes | 2 | 24 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
2.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
66.8%
Expected total
45.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.28
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.76