Closing spread
SEA -8
Total
44.5
Model margin
-1.9est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
1.8%est.
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SEA lead 28–24 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.7 points. SEA are 24-28 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | STL–SEA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | Q1 15:00 | 8 | 57 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| LA | Q1 11:19 | 3 | 4 | Turnover | 0–3 |
| SEA | Q1 9:55 | 6 | 24 | Touchdown | 0–10 |
| LA | Q1 6:44 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–10 |
| SEA | Q1 5:35 | 7 | 60 | Touchdown | 0–17 |
| LA | Q1 1:16 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–17 |
| LA | Q2 14:44 | 3 | -2 | Field goal | 3–17 |
| SEA | Q2 13:26 | 12 | 67 | Touchdown | 3–24 |
| LA | Q2 8:39 | 11 | 45 | Field goal | 6–24 |
| SEA | Q2 2:52 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 6–24 |
| LA | Q2 1:51 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 6–24 |
| SEA | Q2 1:04 | 3 | 54 | Field goal | 6–27 |
| LA | Q2 0:03 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 6–27 |
| LA | Q3 15:00 | 11 | 90 | Touchdown | 13–27 |
| SEA | Q3 9:07 | 7 | 30 | Punt | 13–27 |
| LA | Q3 5:52 | 5 | 24 | Punt | 13–27 |
| SEA | Q3 2:38 | 17 | 91 | Touchdown | 13–34 |
| LA | Q4 8:39 | 3 | 11 | Turnover | 13–34 |
| SEA | Q4 7:11 | 4 | 14 | Field goal | 13–37 |
| LA | Q4 4:46 | 9 | 32 | Turnover on downs | 13–37 |
| SEA | Q4 2:39 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 13–37 |
| LA | Q4 0:20 | 3 | 20 | End of half | 13–37 |
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 12/20 | 172 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julius Jones | 22 | 140 | 6.4 | 1 |
| T.J. Duckett | 19 | 79 | 4.2 | 2 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 2 | 19 | 9.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
1.76%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
44.0%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.91
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-3.45
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.88
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.