2008 · Week 3
Final / OT
Soldier Field · outdoors · grass · 76°F · wind 5mph
Closing spread
CHI -3
Total
35
Model margin
+4.1est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bears
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.033EPA / play-0.095
- 43.2%Success rate39.3%
- +0.028EPA / dropback-0.083
- -0.126EPA / rush-0.111
- 7.5%Explosive rate7.2%
- +1.84CPOE-3.00
- 38.9%Third-down rate35.1%
- 48.9%Red-zone TD rate59.3%
- 1.55Points / drive1.70
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 10–10 since 1999
TB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 37.4 points. CHI are 10-10 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Griese | 38/67 | 407 | 2 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warrick Dunn | 5 | 31 | 6.2 | 0 |
| Earnest Graham | 12 | 16 | 1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerramy Stevens | 5 | 1 | 61 | 1 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Orton | 22/34 | 268 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Forte | 27 | 89 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Garrett Wolfe | 1 | 38 | 38.0 | 0 |
| Kyle Orton | 6 | 21 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Kevin Jones | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
7.50%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.1%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.59
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+3.23
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.13