Closing spread
CAR -7
Total
39
Model margin
+3.7est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
4.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Panthers
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.066EPA / play+0.066
- 43.0%Success rate42.5%
- +0.161EPA / dropback+0.073
- -0.021EPA / rush+0.059
- 10.9%Explosive rate11.3%
- +0.99CPOE-1.27
- 43.3%Third-down rate40.0%
- 55.2%Red-zone TD rate66.7%
- 2.04Points / drive1.98
- 1.8%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ATL lead 33–22 since 1999
CAR have won 4 straight. Meetings average 42.6 points. CAR are 25-29-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | ATL–CAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | Q1 15:00 | 7 | 4 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CAR | Q1 11:54 | 11 | 70 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| ATL | Q1 7:13 | 11 | 65 | Field goal | 3–7 |
| CAR | Q1 1:33 | 6 | 34 | Punt | 3–7 |
| ATL | Q2 13:30 | 3 | -1 | Field goal | 6–7 |
| CAR | Q2 12:12 | 7 | 36 | Punt | 6–7 |
| ATL | Q2 7:16 | 5 | 20 | Punt | 6–7 |
| CAR | Q2 4:31 | 4 | 80 | Touchdown | 6–14 |
| ATL | Q2 2:31 | 7 | 72 | Field goal | 9–14 |
| CAR | Q2 0:37 | 1 | -1 | End of half | 9–14 |
| CAR | Q3 15:00 | 8 | 41 | Punt | 9–14 |
| ATL | Q3 10:57 | 6 | 7 | Punt | 9–14 |
| CAR | Q3 8:37 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 9–14 |
| ATL | Q3 8:12 | 6 | 30 | Punt | 9–14 |
| CAR | Q3 5:15 | 7 | 60 | Field goal | 9–17 |
| ATL | Q3 1:39 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 9–17 |
| CAR | Q4 14:51 | 5 | 56 | Touchdown | 9–24 |
| ATL | Q4 12:03 | 5 | 23 | Punt | 9–24 |
| CAR | Q4 9:20 | 5 | 21 | Punt | 9–24 |
| ATL | Q4 5:31 | 11 | 30 | Turnover on downs | 9–24 |
| CAR | Q4 3:13 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 9–24 |
| ATL | Q4 2:09 | 6 | 14 | Turnover on downs | 9–24 |
| CAR | Q4 1:13 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 9–24 |
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 21/41 | 158 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Turner | 18 | 56 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Jerious Norwood | 3 | 51 | 17.0 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Delhomme | 20/29 | 294 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAngelo Williams | 16 | 57 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 14 | 52 | 3.7 | 1 |
| Josh McCown | 3 | -2 | -0.7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
4.85%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.9%
Expected total
47.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.19
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.68