Closing spread
PIT -6
Total
34.5
Model margin
+2.3est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
3.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Steelers
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.018EPA / play-0.031
- 40.6%Success rate42.9%
- -0.007EPA / dropback+0.022
- -0.027EPA / rush-0.103
- 7.9%Explosive rate7.8%
- -0.33CPOE+0.13
- 41.3%Third-down rate41.3%
- 50.4%Red-zone TD rate54.8%
- 1.61Points / drive1.61
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 33–26 since 1999
PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.4 points. PIT are 30-26-3 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | BAL–PIT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAL | Q1 15:00 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 0–0 |
| PIT | Q1 13:25 | 10 | 50 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| BAL | Q1 6:44 | 3 | -4 | Punt | 0–3 |
| PIT | Q1 5:18 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 0–3 |
| BAL | Q1 5:09 | 10 | 43 | Field goal | 3–3 |
| PIT | Q1 0:18 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 3–3 |
| BAL | Q2 14:38 | 6 | 15 | Punt | 3–3 |
| PIT | Q2 11:33 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 3–3 |
| BAL | Q2 9:27 | 10 | 48 | Field goal | 6–3 |
| PIT | Q2 3:48 | 3 | -11 | Punt | 6–3 |
| BAL | Q2 1:52 | 7 | 45 | Touchdown | 13–3 |
| PIT | Q2 0:17 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 13–3 |
| PIT | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 13–3 |
| BAL | Q3 13:06 | 6 | 31 | Punt | 13–3 |
| PIT | Q3 10:02 | 5 | 15 | Punt | 13–3 |
| BAL | Q3 6:44 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 13–3 |
| PIT | Q3 5:49 | 4 | 52 | Touchdown | 13–10 |
| BAL | Q3 4:09 | 1 | -22 | Opp touchdown | 13–17 |
| BAL | Q3 3:54 | 3 | -13 | Punt | 13–17 |
| PIT | Q3 2:10 | 4 | 13 | Punt | 13–17 |
| BAL | Q3 0:10 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 13–17 |
| PIT | Q4 14:03 | 8 | 56 | Field goal | 13–20 |
| BAL | Q4 9:19 | 9 | 76 | Touchdown | 20–20 |
| PIT | Q4 4:02 | 6 | 18 | Punt | 20–20 |
| BAL | Q4 1:40 | 3 | 12 | End of half | 20–20 |
| BAL | OT | 4 | 5 | Punt | 20–20 |
| PIT | OT | 6 | 29 | Field goal | 20–23 |
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 16/31 | 192 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willis McGahee | 13 | 42 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Ray Rice | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Mark Clayton | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Joe Flacco | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 14/24 | 191 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashard Mendenhall | 9 | 30 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Carey Davis | 8 | 15 | 1.9 | 0 |
| Mewelde Moore | 8 | 13 | 1.6 | 0 |
| Nate Washington | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
3.09%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.2%
Expected total
39.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.22
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.27