Closing spread
BUF -8.5
Total
43.5
Model margin
+3.9est.
STL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Rams
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
BUF lead 6–2 since 1999
Meetings average 55 points. STL are 2-6 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | BUF–STL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–0 |
| BUF | Q1 13:46 | 5 | 64 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| LA | Q1 11:26 | 5 | 67 | Touchdown | 3–7 |
| BUF | Q1 8:37 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 3–7 |
| LA | Q1 7:33 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 3–7 |
| BUF | Q1 6:34 | 8 | 12 | Field goal | 6–7 |
| LA | Q1 3:06 | 10 | 84 | Touchdown | 6–14 |
| BUF | Q2 13:41 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 6–14 |
| LA | Q2 11:40 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 6–14 |
| BUF | Q2 10:05 | 7 | 18 | Punt | 6–14 |
| LA | Q2 5:55 | 5 | 21 | Punt | 6–14 |
| BUF | Q2 3:18 | 2 | 0 | Turnover | 6–14 |
| LA | Q2 2:28 | 4 | 7 | Turnover on downs | 6–14 |
| BUF | Q2 1:39 | 4 | 1 | Punt | 6–14 |
| LA | Q2 0:40 | 2 | 27 | End of half | 6–14 |
| BUF | Q3 15:00 | 10 | 76 | Touchdown | 13–14 |
| LA | Q3 9:27 | 10 | 42 | Missed field goal | 13–14 |
| BUF | Q3 3:35 | 5 | 14 | Punt | 13–14 |
| LA | Q3 0:45 | 2 | -2 | Opp touchdown | 20–14 |
| LA | Q4 14:48 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 20–14 |
| BUF | Q4 13:11 | 5 | 76 | Touchdown | 28–14 |
| LA | Q4 10:24 | 5 | 25 | Turnover on downs | 28–14 |
| BUF | Q4 8:13 | 4 | 18 | Field goal | 31–14 |
| LA | Q4 6:21 | 1 | 30 | Turnover | 31–14 |
| BUF | Q4 6:08 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 31–14 |
| LA | Q4 4:23 | 10 | 70 | Turnover on downs | 31–14 |
| BUF | Q4 1:49 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 31–14 |
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Edwards | 15/25 | 197 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marshawn Lynch | 19 | 57 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Fred Jackson | 7 | 46 | 6.6 | 1 |
| Trent Edwards | 5 | 8 | 1.6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
1.59%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.4%
Expected total
44.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.39
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.88
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.