Closing spread
BUF -8.5
Total
43.5
Model margin
+3.9est.
STL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Rams
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
BUF lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 52.7 points. STL are 2-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Edwards | 15/25 | 197 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marshawn Lynch | 19 | 57 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Fred Jackson | 7 | 46 | 6.6 | 1 |
| Trent Edwards | 5 | 8 | 1.6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
1.59%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.4%
Expected total
44.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.39
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.88
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.