Closing spread
BUF -1
Total
51.5
Model margin
-0.0est.
LA perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Rams
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.111EPA / play-0.083
- 49.0%Success rate41.2%
- +0.203EPA / dropback-0.094
- -0.064EPA / rush-0.065
- 9.3%Explosive rate7.4%
- +0.35CPOE-2.69
- 51.1%Third-down rate40.2%
- 61.8%Red-zone TD rate60.5%
- 2.48Points / drive1.57
- 2.5%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 52.7 points. LA are 2-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 26/31 | 297 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 10 | 56 | 5.6 | 1 |
| Devin Singletary | 8 | 48 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Zack Moss | 6 | 15 | 2.5 | 0 |
| James Cook | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stefon Diggs | 8 | 9 | 122 | 1 |
| Gabe Davis | 4 | 5 | 88 | 1 |
| Jamison Crowder | 3 | 4 | 28 | 0 |
| Zack Moss | 6 | 6 | 21 | 0 |
| Isaiah McKenzie | 2 | 3 | 19 | 1 |
| Devin Singletary | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Dawson Knox | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 29/41 | 240 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darrell Henderson | 13 | 47 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Brandon Powell | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Cam Akers | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Kupp | 13 | 15 | 128 | 1 |
| Tyler Higbee | 5 | 11 | 39 | 0 |
| Darrell Henderson | 5 | 5 | 26 | 0 |
| Ben Skowronek | 4 | 6 | 25 | 0 |
| Allen Robinson | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Brandon Powell | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Tutu Atwell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.0%
Expected total
44.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.06
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+1.33
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.02