2022 · Week 1

Final

Bills

Buffalo

QB Josh Allen

31·10

Rams

Los Angeles

QB Matthew Stafford

SoFi Stadium · dome · matrixturf

Closing spread

BUF -1

Total

51.5

Model margin

-0.0est.

LA perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bills

Rams

Win probability

  • Rams
  • Bills

How each play moved the game.

Rams winsBills wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Billsedge mapRams
  • +0.111EPA / play-0.083
  • 49.0%Success rate41.2%
  • +0.203EPA / dropback-0.094
  • -0.064EPA / rush-0.065
  • 9.3%Explosive rate7.4%
  • +0.35CPOE-2.69
  • 51.1%Third-down rate40.2%
  • 61.8%Red-zone TD rate60.5%
  • 2.48Points / drive1.57
  • 2.5%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BUF lead 6–2 since 1999

Meetings average 55 points. LA are 2-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5BUF @ LA37–34BUF
2024 · W14BUF @ LA42–44RAMS
2020 · W3LA @ BUF32–35BUF
2016 · W5BUF @ LA30–19BUF
2012 · W14STL @ BUF15–12RAMS
2008 · W4BUF @ STL31–14BUF
2004 · W11STL @ BUF17–37BUF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBUF–LA
BUFQ1 15:00975Touchdown7–0
LAQ1 9:56843Punt7–0
BUFQ1 5:06847Turnover7–0
LAQ1 0:3937Punt7–0
BUFQ2 14:0824Turnover7–0
LAQ2 13:2420Turnover7–0
BUFQ2 12:55745Field goal10–0
LAQ2 8:481155Touchdown10–7
BUFQ2 3:0048Turnover10–7
LAQ2 1:5381Field goal10–10
LAQ3 15:003-1Punt10–10
BUFQ3 13:02863Touchdown17–10
LAQ3 7:59625Punt17–10
BUFQ3 5:111394Touchdown24–10
LAQ4 13:27521Turnover24–10
BUFQ4 11:01359Touchdown31–10
LAQ4 9:25726Turnover31–10
BUFQ4 6:58319Turnover31–10
LAQ4 5:171466Turnover on downs31–10
BUFQ4 0:4100End of half31–10

Box score

Individual performances

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Allen26/3129732

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Josh Allen10565.61
Devin Singletary8486.00
Zack Moss6152.50
James Cook122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Stefon Diggs891221
Gabe Davis45881
Jamison Crowder34280
Zack Moss66210
Isaiah McKenzie23191
Devin Singletary22140
Dawson Knox1250

Rams

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford29/4124013

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Darrell Henderson13473.60
Brandon Powell133.00
Matthew Stafford122.00
Cam Akers300.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Cooper Kupp13151281
Tyler Higbee511390
Darrell Henderson55260
Ben Skowronek46250
Allen Robinson12120
Brandon Powell11100
Tutu Atwell0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -12.7%4.4%2.9%7.4%7.4%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Bills.

Half-point at risk

2.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

49.0%

Expected total

44.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.06
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+1.33
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.02