2020 · Week 3

Final

Rams

Los Angeles

QB Jared Goff

32·35

Bills

Buffalo

QB Josh Allen

New Era Field · outdoors · astroturf · 79°F · wind 16mph

Closing spread

BUF -1.5

Total

46.5

Model margin

+2.8est.

BUF perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Rams

Bills

Win probability

  • Bills
  • Rams

How each play moved the game.

Bills winsRams wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ramsedge mapBills
  • -0.013EPA / play+0.169
  • 44.6%Success rate50.4%
  • +0.032EPA / dropback+0.298
  • -0.081EPA / rush-0.081
  • 9.2%Explosive rate10.7%
  • +0.37CPOE+6.29
  • 44.2%Third-down rate49.9%
  • 59.0%Red-zone TD rate68.4%
  • 1.76Points / drive2.78
  • 2.1%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BUF lead 6–2 since 1999

Meetings average 55 points. BUF are 6-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5BUF @ LA37–34BUF
2024 · W14BUF @ LA42–44RAMS
2022 · W1BUF @ LA31–10BUF
2016 · W5BUF @ LA30–19BUF
2012 · W14STL @ BUF15–12RAMS
2008 · W4BUF @ STL31–14BUF
2004 · W11STL @ BUF17–37BUF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLA–BUF
BUFQ1 15:0031Punt0–0
LAQ1 13:53953Missed field goal0–0
BUFQ1 8:071257Touchdown0–7
LAQ1 1:41731Turnover0–7
BUFQ2 13:59766Touchdown0–14
LAQ2 10:041263Field goal3–14
BUFQ2 3:09875Touchdown3–21
LAQ2 0:38414End of half3–21
LAQ3 15:00727Turnover on downs3–21
BUFQ3 12:21862Touchdown3–28
LAQ3 8:05875Touchdown10–28
BUFQ3 4:4722Turnover10–28
LAQ3 4:13359Touchdown17–28
BUFQ3 2:5230Punt17–28
LAQ3 1:1711107Touchdown25–28
BUFQ4 10:34632Turnover25–28
LAQ4 7:25637Touchdown32–28
BUFQ4 4:301380Touchdown32–35
LAQ4 0:15112Turnover32–35

Box score

Individual performances

Rams

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jared Goff23/3232121

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Darrell Henderson201145.71
Robert Woods33010.00
Malcolm Brown7192.70
Jared Goff242.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Cooper Kupp9101071
Robert Woods56741
Josh Reynolds45600
Tyler Higbee22400
Gerald Everett22340
Darrell Henderson1360
Malcolm Brown0200
Van Jefferson0100

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Allen24/3331141

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Devin Singletary13715.50
T.J. Yeldon3186.00
Josh Allen482.01
Isaiah McKenzie144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Cole Beasley671000
Gabe Davis44810
Devin Singletary45500
Stefon Diggs46491
Tyler Kroft45242
Isaiah McKenzie1260
Lee Smith1111
John Brown0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +1.53.9%2.6%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.0%2.7%

Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Rams.

Half-point at risk

2.13%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.6%

Expected total

40.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.12
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.82