Closing spread
BUF -1.5
Total
46.5
Model margin
+2.8est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bills
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.013EPA / play+0.169
- 44.6%Success rate50.4%
- +0.032EPA / dropback+0.298
- -0.081EPA / rush-0.081
- 9.2%Explosive rate10.7%
- +0.37CPOE+6.29
- 44.2%Third-down rate49.9%
- 59.0%Red-zone TD rate68.4%
- 1.76Points / drive2.78
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 52.7 points. BUF are 5-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 23/32 | 321 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darrell Henderson | 20 | 114 | 5.7 | 1 |
| Robert Woods | 3 | 30 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Malcolm Brown | 7 | 19 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Jared Goff | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Kupp | 9 | 10 | 107 | 1 |
| Robert Woods | 5 | 6 | 74 | 1 |
| Josh Reynolds | 4 | 5 | 60 | 0 |
| Tyler Higbee | 2 | 2 | 40 | 0 |
| Gerald Everett | 2 | 2 | 34 | 0 |
| Darrell Henderson | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Malcolm Brown | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Van Jefferson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 24/33 | 311 | 4 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Singletary | 13 | 71 | 5.5 | 0 |
| T.J. Yeldon | 3 | 18 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Josh Allen | 4 | 8 | 2.0 | 1 |
| Isaiah McKenzie | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cole Beasley | 6 | 7 | 100 | 0 |
| Gabe Davis | 4 | 4 | 81 | 0 |
| Devin Singletary | 4 | 5 | 50 | 0 |
| Stefon Diggs | 4 | 6 | 49 | 1 |
| Tyler Kroft | 4 | 5 | 24 | 2 |
| Isaiah McKenzie | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Lee Smith | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| John Brown | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.6%
Expected total
40.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.12
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.82