2024 · Week 14

Final

Bills

Buffalo

QB Josh Allen

42·44

Rams

Los Angeles

QB Matthew Stafford

SoFi Stadium · dome · matrixturf

Closing spread

BUF -3.5

Total

49.5

Model margin

-0.8est.

LA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bills

Rams

Win probability

  • Rams
  • Bills

How each play moved the game.

Rams winsBills wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Billsedge mapRams
  • +0.186EPA / play+0.038
  • 47.8%Success rate47.5%
  • +0.298EPA / dropback+0.112
  • +0.029EPA / rush-0.069
  • 9.5%Explosive rate7.9%
  • +0.64CPOE-0.97
  • 45.6%Third-down rate37.0%
  • 75.1%Red-zone TD rate49.9%
  • 2.90Points / drive2.09
  • 0.8%Turnover rate1.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BUF lead 6–2 since 1999

Meetings average 55 points. LA are 2-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5BUF @ LA37–34BUF
2022 · W1BUF @ LA31–10BUF
2020 · W3LA @ BUF32–35BUF
2016 · W5BUF @ LA30–19BUF
2012 · W14STL @ BUF15–12RAMS
2008 · W4BUF @ STL31–14BUF
2004 · W11STL @ BUF17–37BUF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBUF–LA
LAQ1 15:001270Touchdown0–7
BUFQ1 8:261155Touchdown7–7
LAQ1 3:22965Field goal7–10
BUFQ2 13:37418Opp touchdown7–17
BUFQ2 12:29470Touchdown14–17
LAQ2 10:231472Touchdown14–24
BUFQ2 2:36523Punt14–24
LAQ2 0:49413End of half14–24
BUFQ3 15:0033Punt14–24
LAQ3 13:551276Touchdown14–31
BUFQ3 8:267100Touchdown21–31
LAQ3 3:54770Touchdown21–38
BUFQ3 0:18555Touchdown28–38
LAQ4 14:2738Punt28–38
BUFQ4 12:521186Touchdown35–38
LAQ4 8:491375Touchdown35–44
BUFQ4 1:541035Touchdown42–44
LAQ4 1:0038Punt42–44

Box score

Individual performances

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Allen22/3734230

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Josh Allen10828.23
James Cook6203.30
Curtis Samuel111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Khalil Shakir581061
Amari Cooper614950
Mack Hollins46571
Ty Johnson23551
Curtis Samuel23150
James Cook2290
Dawson Knox1150

Rams

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford23/3032020

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kyren Williams29873.02
Blake Corum8344.30
Puka Nacua5163.21

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Puka Nacua12141621
Cooper Kupp58921
Tutu Atwell33450
Colby Parkinson11110
Kyren Williams22100
Demarcus Robinson0100
Hunter Long0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.52.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.3%

Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Bills.

Half-point at risk

7.43%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

47.0%

Expected total

45.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.48
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.77