Closing spread
BUF -3.5
Total
49.5
Model margin
-0.8est.
LA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Rams
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.186EPA / play+0.038
- 47.8%Success rate47.5%
- +0.298EPA / dropback+0.112
- +0.029EPA / rush-0.069
- 9.5%Explosive rate7.9%
- +0.64CPOE-0.97
- 45.6%Third-down rate37.0%
- 75.1%Red-zone TD rate49.9%
- 2.90Points / drive2.09
- 0.8%Turnover rate1.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 52.7 points. LA are 2-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 22/37 | 342 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 10 | 82 | 8.2 | 3 |
| James Cook | 6 | 20 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Curtis Samuel | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khalil Shakir | 5 | 8 | 106 | 1 |
| Amari Cooper | 6 | 14 | 95 | 0 |
| Mack Hollins | 4 | 6 | 57 | 1 |
| Ty Johnson | 2 | 3 | 55 | 1 |
| Curtis Samuel | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| James Cook | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Dawson Knox | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 23/30 | 320 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyren Williams | 29 | 87 | 3.0 | 2 |
| Blake Corum | 8 | 34 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Puka Nacua | 5 | 16 | 3.2 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Puka Nacua | 12 | 14 | 162 | 1 |
| Cooper Kupp | 5 | 8 | 92 | 1 |
| Tutu Atwell | 3 | 3 | 45 | 0 |
| Colby Parkinson | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Kyren Williams | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Hunter Long | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
7.43%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.0%
Expected total
45.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.48
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.77