2026 · Week 5

Final / OT

Bills

Buffalo

QB Josh Allen

37·34

Rams

Los Angeles

QB Matthew Stafford

SoFi Stadium · dome

Closing spread

LA -3.5

Total

55.5

Model margin

+3.0est.

LA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bills

Rams

Win probability

  • Rams
  • Bills

How each play moved the game.

Rams winsBills wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Billsedge mapRams
  • +0.210EPA / play+0.059
  • 49.2%Success rate49.0%
  • +0.338EPA / dropback+0.117
  • +0.031EPA / rush-0.042
  • 13.6%Explosive rate8.1%
  • +4.89CPOE+1.33
  • 48.3%Third-down rate46.2%
  • 70.0%Red-zone TD rate65.6%
  • 3.19Points / drive2.15
  • 2.4%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BUF lead 6–2 since 1999

Meetings average 55 points. LA are 2-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W14BUF @ LA42–44RAMS
2022 · W1BUF @ LA31–10BUF
2020 · W3LA @ BUF32–35BUF
2016 · W5BUF @ LA30–19BUF
2012 · W14STL @ BUF15–12RAMS
2008 · W4BUF @ STL31–14BUF
2004 · W11STL @ BUF17–37BUF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBUF–LA
BUFQ1 15:003-5Field goal3–0
LAQ1 13:231353Missed field goal3–0
BUFQ1 5:351050Field goal6–0
LAQ1 0:101466Touchdown6–7
BUFQ2 8:00574Touchdown13–7
LAQ2 5:09811Punt13–7
BUFQ2 1:5239Turnover13–7
LAQ2 0:20313End of half13–7
LAQ3 15:001048Touchdown13–14
BUFQ3 10:1154Punt13–14
LAQ3 8:1736Punt13–14
BUFQ3 6:441153Touchdown19–14
LAQ3 2:45683Touchdown19–20
BUFQ4 14:16679Touchdown27–20
LAQ4 11:28961Touchdown27–27
BUFQ4 7:141176Touchdown34–27
LAQ4 1:39863Touchdown34–34
BUFQ4 0:0500End of half34–34
BUFOT461Turnover34–34
LAOT750Missed field goal34–34
BUFOT435Field goal37–34

Box score

Individual performances

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Allen12/1921011

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Josh Allen1012112.11
James Cook251114.42
Ray Davis221.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Khalil Shakir33800
Ty Johnson44720
Ray Davis11310
James Cook1170
Dalton Kincaid1270
Keon Coleman1271
Dawson Knox1360
Skyler Bell0200

Rams

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford40/5438330

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kyren Williams16493.11
Blake Corum5193.81
Puka Nacua294.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Puka Nacua17241381
Tyler Higbee56830
Blake Corum34530
Davante Adams57512
Kyren Williams68270
Davis Allen22240
Tutu Atwell1140
Colby Parkinson1230

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.53.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Bills.

Half-point at risk

2.54%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.0%

Expected total

46.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.74
  • Home-field advantage+2.22
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.96