Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
-12.7est.
LA perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Billsedge mapRams
- +0.300EPA / play-0.226
- 41.8%Success rate43.3%
- +0.597EPA / dropback-0.270
- -0.263EPA / rush-0.171
- 14.5%Explosive rate6.7%
- +8.14CPOE-4.74
- 33.3%Third-down rate22.2%
- 66.7%Red-zone TD rate33.3%
- 3.07Points / drive0.69
- 0.0%Turnover rate3.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 52.7 points. LA are 2-5 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-14.88
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-12.66