2016 · Week 5

Final

Bills

Buffalo

QB Tyrod Taylor

30·19

Rams

Los Angeles

QB Case Keenum

Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum · outdoors · grass · 91°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

BUF -2.5

Total

41.5

Model margin

-2.4est.

LA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bills

Rams

Win probability

  • Rams
  • Bills

How each play moved the game.

Rams winsBills wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Billsedge mapRams
  • +0.056EPA / play-0.203
  • 44.9%Success rate36.6%
  • +0.076EPA / dropback-0.222
  • +0.028EPA / rush-0.170
  • 10.0%Explosive rate6.8%
  • +0.94CPOE-6.92
  • 41.7%Third-down rate32.2%
  • 68.0%Red-zone TD rate47.6%
  • 2.08Points / drive0.97
  • 1.1%Turnover rate2.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BUF lead 6–2 since 1999

Meetings average 55 points. LA are 2-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5BUF @ LA37–34BUF
2024 · W14BUF @ LA42–44RAMS
2022 · W1BUF @ LA31–10BUF
2020 · W3LA @ BUF32–35BUF
2012 · W14STL @ BUF15–12RAMS
2008 · W4BUF @ STL31–14BUF
2004 · W11STL @ BUF17–37BUF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBUF–LA
LAQ1 15:001165Field goal0–3
BUFQ1 9:311399Touchdown7–3
LAQ1 2:22522Turnover7–3
BUFQ2 15:00358Touchdown13–3
LAQ2 13:5939Punt13–3
BUFQ2 12:1539Punt13–3
LAQ2 10:19537Field goal13–6
BUFQ2 7:4632Punt13–6
LAQ2 6:35859Touchdown13–13
BUFQ2 1:56970Field goal16–13
BUFQ3 15:0034Punt16–13
LAQ3 13:18848Field goal16–16
BUFQ3 8:0567Punt16–16
LAQ3 5:23317Opp touchdown23–16
LAQ3 3:543-5Punt23–16
BUFQ3 1:48524Punt23–16
LAQ4 14:071394Field goal23–19
BUFQ4 5:5137Punt23–19
LAQ4 4:3547Turnover on downs23–19
BUFQ4 3:41430Touchdown30–19
LAQ4 2:374-8Turnover30–19
BUFQ4 1:482-4End of half30–19

Box score

Individual performances

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tyrod Taylor12/2312420

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LeSean McCoy181508.30
Tyrod Taylor5285.60
Mike Gillislee263.01
Reggie Bush133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Charles Clay55730
Robert Woods26260
Marquise Goodwin26131
LeSean McCoy2280
Justin Hunter1141
Walt Powell0100

Rams

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Case Keenum21/3127102

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Todd Gurley23723.11
Tavon Austin3268.70
Malcolm Brown221.00
Bradley Marquez122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kenny Britt56750
Tavon Austin710590
Brian Quick34510
Todd Gurley35360
Malcolm Brown11260
Lance Kendricks23240
Tyler Higbee0100
Pharoh Cooper0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.53.0%4.7%3.1%7.5%7.0%2.7%4.0%

Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Bills.

Half-point at risk

2.14%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

42.8%

Expected total

42.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.09
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-2.35