Closing spread
BUF -2.5
Total
41.5
Model margin
-2.4est.
LA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Rams
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.056EPA / play-0.203
- 44.9%Success rate36.6%
- +0.076EPA / dropback-0.222
- +0.028EPA / rush-0.170
- 10.0%Explosive rate6.8%
- +0.94CPOE-6.92
- 41.7%Third-down rate32.2%
- 68.0%Red-zone TD rate47.6%
- 2.08Points / drive0.97
- 1.1%Turnover rate2.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 52.7 points. LA are 2-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrod Taylor | 12/23 | 124 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeSean McCoy | 18 | 150 | 8.3 | 0 |
| Tyrod Taylor | 5 | 28 | 5.6 | 0 |
| Mike Gillislee | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 1 |
| Reggie Bush | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Clay | 5 | 5 | 73 | 0 |
| Robert Woods | 2 | 6 | 26 | 0 |
| Marquise Goodwin | 2 | 6 | 13 | 1 |
| LeSean McCoy | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Justin Hunter | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
| Walt Powell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Case Keenum | 21/31 | 271 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Todd Gurley | 23 | 72 | 3.1 | 1 |
| Tavon Austin | 3 | 26 | 8.7 | 0 |
| Malcolm Brown | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Bradley Marquez | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny Britt | 5 | 6 | 75 | 0 |
| Tavon Austin | 7 | 10 | 59 | 0 |
| Brian Quick | 3 | 4 | 51 | 0 |
| Todd Gurley | 3 | 5 | 36 | 0 |
| Malcolm Brown | 1 | 1 | 26 | 0 |
| Lance Kendricks | 2 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Tyler Higbee | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Pharoh Cooper | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
2.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
42.8%
Expected total
42.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.09
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-2.35