Closing spread
BUF -2
Total
40
Model margin
+4.2est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Bills
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
BUF lead 6–2 since 1999
Meetings average 55 points. BUF are 6-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | STL–BUF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | Q1 15:00 | 5 | 8 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LA | Q1 12:11 | 11 | 67 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| BUF | Q1 4:50 | 3 | 2 | Turnover | 9–0 |
| LA | Q1 2:55 | 1 | 18 | Touchdown | 10–0 |
| BUF | Q1 2:48 | 10 | 47 | Touchdown | 10–7 |
| LA | Q2 13:56 | 3 | -7 | Punt | 10–7 |
| BUF | Q2 12:31 | 3 | 56 | Touchdown | 10–14 |
| LA | Q2 11:01 | 14 | 68 | Touchdown | 17–14 |
| BUF | Q2 3:05 | 9 | 73 | Field goal | 17–17 |
| LA | Q2 0:34 | 2 | 26 | End of half | 17–17 |
| LA | Q3 15:00 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 17–23 |
| BUF | Q3 13:48 | 1 | 5 | Touchdown | 17–24 |
| LA | Q3 13:43 | 3 | 6 | Opp touchdown | 17–31 |
| LA | Q3 11:12 | 0 | 0 | Field goal | 17–31 |
| BUF | Q3 11:09 | 6 | 34 | Field goal | 17–34 |
| LA | Q3 8:03 | 3 | -6 | Turnover | 17–34 |
| BUF | Q3 6:39 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 17–34 |
| LA | Q3 5:15 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 17–34 |
| BUF | Q3 3:33 | 5 | 54 | Field goal | 17–37 |
| LA | Q3 1:25 | 11 | 70 | Turnover | 17–37 |
| BUF | Q4 11:48 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 17–37 |
| LA | Q4 10:50 | 18 | 47 | Turnover | 17–37 |
| BUF | Q4 5:10 | 4 | 11 | Punt | 17–37 |
| LA | Q4 2:44 | 4 | -20 | Turnover on downs | 17–37 |
| BUF | Q4 1:49 | 1 | 5 | End of half | 17–37 |
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Bledsoe | 15/24 | 185 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willis McGahee | 20 | 100 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Eric Moulds | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Travis Henry | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Drew Bledsoe | 3 | -2 | -0.7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
2.11%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.2%
Expected total
42.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.61
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.18
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.