Closing spread
BUF -2
Total
40
Model margin
+4.2est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Bills
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
BUF lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 52.7 points. BUF are 5-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Bledsoe | 15/24 | 185 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willis McGahee | 20 | 100 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Eric Moulds | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Travis Henry | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Drew Bledsoe | 3 | -2 | -0.7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
2.11%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.2%
Expected total
42.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.61
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.18
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.