Closing spread
BUF -3.5
Total
42
Model margin
+1.8est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Rams
- OutMike McNeillTEThigh· DNP
- QuestionableDanny AmendolaWRFoot· Limited
- QuestionableMario HagganLBElbow· Full
- DNPTim BarnesCNot Injury Related
- ProbableScott WellsCKnee· Full
- ProbableSteven JacksonRBFoot· Full
Bills
- OutChris HairstonTAnkle· DNP
- OutChris KelsayDENeck· DNP
- OutEric WoodCKnee· DNP
- OutMark AndersonDEKnee· DNP
- QuestionableAaron WilliamsCBKnee· Limited
- QuestionableChris WhiteLBBack· Limited
- QuestionableJustin RogersCBFoot· Limited
- QuestionableLeodis McKelvinCBBack· Limited
- QuestionableSpencer JohnsonDTAnkle· Limited
- QuestionableSteve JohnsonWRHamstring· Limited
- ProbableKraig UrbikGKnee· Limited
- ProbableKyle WilliamsDTAnkle· Limited
- ProbableNick BarnettLBKnee· Limited
- ProbableAndy LevitreGKnee· Full
- ProbableBrad SmithWRHamstring· Full
- ProbableC.J. SpillerRBShoulder· Full
- ProbableDa'Norris SearcySHand· Full
- ProbableDonald JonesWRCalf· Full
- ProbableJairus ByrdSBack· Full
- ProbableMarcell DareusDEShoulder· Full
- ProbableMario WilliamsDEWrist· Full
- ProbableScott ChandlerTEGroin· Full
- ProbableTrevor GrahamWRAnkle· Full
Win probability
- Bills
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
BUF lead 6–2 since 1999
Meetings average 55 points. BUF are 6-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | STL–BUF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LA | Q1 13:19 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–0 |
| BUF | Q1 11:51 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LA | Q1 9:50 | 3 | -4 | Punt | 0–0 |
| BUF | Q1 7:51 | 9 | 56 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| LA | Q1 2:14 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 0–3 |
| BUF | Q1 1:41 | 4 | 56 | Turnover | 0–3 |
| LA | Q2 15:00 | 4 | 18 | Punt | 0–3 |
| BUF | Q2 13:09 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–3 |
| LA | Q2 10:50 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–3 |
| BUF | Q2 8:56 | 7 | 20 | Punt | 0–3 |
| LA | Q2 4:53 | 10 | 43 | Turnover | 0–3 |
| BUF | Q2 1:15 | 6 | 27 | Field goal | 0–6 |
| LA | Q2 0:07 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 0–6 |
| LA | Q3 15:00 | 12 | 65 | Touchdown | 7–6 |
| BUF | Q3 8:37 | 9 | 75 | Touchdown | 7–12 |
| LA | Q3 3:26 | 8 | 28 | Punt | 7–12 |
| BUF | Q4 14:46 | 4 | 17 | Punt | 7–12 |
| LA | Q4 11:41 | 5 | 34 | Punt | 7–12 |
| BUF | Q4 9:05 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 7–12 |
| LA | Q4 7:17 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 7–12 |
| BUF | Q4 6:21 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 7–12 |
| LA | Q4 4:55 | 14 | 84 | Touchdown | 15–12 |
| BUF | Q4 0:48 | 4 | 10 | Turnover | 15–12 |
| LA | Q4 0:12 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 15–12 |
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 25/33 | 247 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Spiller | 7 | 37 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Fred Jackson | 9 | 14 | 1.6 | 0 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Trevor Graham | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scott Chandler | 5 | 5 | 71 | 0 |
| Steve Johnson | 6 | 8 | 71 | 0 |
| Donald Jones | 3 | 5 | 33 | 0 |
| Trevor Graham | 3 | 7 | 33 | 0 |
| Fred Jackson | 5 | 5 | 16 | 0 |
| C.J. Spiller | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Brad Smith | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Lee Smith | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
2.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.0%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.65
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.84
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.