Closing spread
BUF -3.5
Total
42
Model margin
+1.8est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bills
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
BUF lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 52.7 points. BUF are 5-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 25/33 | 247 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Spiller | 7 | 37 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Fred Jackson | 9 | 14 | 1.6 | 0 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Trevor Graham | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scott Chandler | 5 | 5 | 71 | 0 |
| Steve Johnson | 6 | 8 | 71 | 0 |
| Donald Jones | 3 | 5 | 33 | 0 |
| Trevor Graham | 3 | 7 | 33 | 0 |
| Fred Jackson | 5 | 5 | 16 | 0 |
| C.J. Spiller | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Brad Smith | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Lee Smith | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
2.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.0%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.65
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.84
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.