Closing spread
CIN -1
Total
42
Model margin
+4.4est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Bengals
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.155EPA / play-0.172
- 36.2%Success rate38.0%
- -0.205EPA / dropback-0.150
- -0.086EPA / rush-0.208
- 6.7%Explosive rate5.1%
- -11.69CPOE-3.29
- 33.5%Third-down rate35.3%
- 29.2%Red-zone TD rate45.7%
- 1.05Points / drive0.93
- 2.6%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CIN lead 32–22 since 1999
Meetings average 42.7 points. CIN are 29-24-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Anderson | 15/24 | 138 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Lewis | 25 | 79 | 3.2 | 1 |
| Jerome Harrison | 4 | 20 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Jason Wright | 5 | 18 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Derek Anderson | 4 | 11 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Josh Cribbs | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 21/35 | 156 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 4 | 41 | 10.3 | 0 |
| Chris Perry | 12 | 28 | 2.3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
2.10%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.9%
Expected total
40.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.96
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.44