Closing spread
CIN -1
Total
42
Model margin
+4.4est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Bengals
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.155EPA / play-0.172
- 36.2%Success rate38.0%
- -0.205EPA / dropback-0.150
- -0.086EPA / rush-0.208
- 6.7%Explosive rate5.1%
- -11.69CPOE-3.29
- 33.5%Third-down rate35.3%
- 29.2%Red-zone TD rate45.7%
- 1.05Points / drive0.93
- 2.6%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CIN lead 32–22 since 1999
Meetings average 42.7 points. CIN are 29-24-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | CLE–CIN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN | Q1 15:00 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CLE | Q1 13:34 | 7 | 45 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| CIN | Q1 9:29 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 3–0 |
| CLE | Q1 7:52 | 12 | 32 | Punt | 3–0 |
| CIN | Q1 2:30 | 14 | 63 | Field goal | 3–3 |
| CLE | Q2 10:22 | 3 | -11 | Punt | 3–3 |
| CIN | Q2 9:22 | 3 | 9 | Turnover | 3–3 |
| CLE | Q2 8:21 | 8 | 40 | Turnover on downs | 3–3 |
| CIN | Q2 3:31 | 3 | 5 | Turnover | 3–3 |
| CIN | Q2 2:29 | 6 | 17 | Field goal | 3–6 |
| CLE | Q2 0:08 | 1 | 0 | End of half | 3–6 |
| CLE | Q3 15:00 | 4 | 16 | Turnover | 3–6 |
| CIN | Q3 13:06 | 5 | 30 | Punt | 3–6 |
| CLE | Q3 10:19 | 4 | 8 | Punt | 3–6 |
| CIN | Q3 8:27 | 7 | 14 | Punt | 3–6 |
| CLE | Q3 4:43 | 13 | 75 | Touchdown | 10–6 |
| CIN | Q4 13:05 | 1 | 3 | Turnover | 10–6 |
| CLE | Q4 12:58 | 4 | 22 | Touchdown | 17–6 |
| CIN | Q4 11:06 | 8 | 59 | Touchdown | 17–12 |
| CLE | Q4 7:46 | 7 | 28 | Punt | 17–12 |
| CIN | Q4 3:01 | 3 | -1 | Turnover | 17–12 |
| CLE | Q4 2:04 | 3 | 7 | Field goal | 20–12 |
| CIN | Q4 0:32 | 3 | 9 | Turnover | 20–12 |
| CLE | Q4 0:04 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 20–12 |
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Anderson | 15/24 | 138 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Lewis | 25 | 79 | 3.2 | 1 |
| Jerome Harrison | 4 | 20 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Jason Wright | 5 | 18 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Derek Anderson | 4 | 11 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Josh Cribbs | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 21/35 | 156 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 4 | 41 | 10.3 | 0 |
| Chris Perry | 12 | 28 | 2.3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
2.10%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.9%
Expected total
40.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.96
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.44