Closing spread
DEN -9
Total
47
Model margin
+0.4est.
KC perspective
Push chance
1.1%est.
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.101EPA / play-0.051
- 49.2%Success rate42.2%
- +0.157EPA / dropback-0.019
- -0.007EPA / rush-0.107
- 9.1%Explosive rate7.7%
- +1.41CPOE-3.09
- 48.2%Third-down rate37.7%
- 61.3%Red-zone TD rate60.9%
- 2.01Points / drive1.48
- 2.8%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 31–24 since 1999
Meetings average 43.8 points. KC are 28-26-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Cutler | 29/49 | 361 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Selvin Young | 11 | 49 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Michael Pittman | 4 | 36 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Andre Hall | 4 | 14 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Jay Cutler | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Brandon Marshall | 1 | -11 | -11.0 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damon Huard | 21/28 | 160 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Johnson | 28 | 198 | 7.1 | 2 |
| Kolby Smith | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Jamaal Charles | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Damon Huard | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
1.07%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.2%
Expected total
47.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.51
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-1.55
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.42