2008 · Week 4
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 81°F · wind 5mph
Closing spread
TB -2
Total
43
Model margin
-2.3est.
TB perspective
Push chance
2.0%est.
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.051EPA / play-0.033
- 43.8%Success rate43.2%
- +0.134EPA / dropback+0.028
- -0.072EPA / rush-0.126
- 8.3%Explosive rate7.5%
- +4.24CPOE+1.84
- 44.1%Third-down rate38.9%
- 66.2%Red-zone TD rate48.9%
- 1.94Points / drive1.55
- 1.9%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TB lead 10–9 since 1999
Meetings average 40.8 points. TB are 11-7-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | GB–TB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GB | Q1 15:00 | 10 | 53 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| TB | Q1 10:24 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 7–0 |
| GB | Q1 8:48 | 6 | 16 | Punt | 7–0 |
| TB | Q1 5:51 | 9 | 20 | Punt | 7–0 |
| GB | Q1 2:32 | 6 | 14 | Turnover | 7–0 |
| TB | Q2 14:50 | 7 | 27 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| GB | Q2 12:09 | 3 | -6 | Punt | 7–7 |
| TB | Q2 10:55 | 7 | 36 | Field goal | 7–10 |
| GB | Q2 6:43 | 4 | 12 | Turnover | 7–10 |
| TB | Q2 4:33 | 9 | 32 | Field goal | 7–13 |
| GB | Q2 1:07 | 6 | 26 | Turnover on downs | 7–13 |
| TB | Q2 0:04 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 7–13 |
| TB | Q3 15:00 | 6 | 38 | Turnover | 7–13 |
| GB | Q3 11:32 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 7–13 |
| TB | Q3 9:26 | 7 | 16 | Punt | 7–19 |
| GB | Q3 6:14 | 1 | -2 | Opp touchdown | 7–20 |
| GB | Q3 6:00 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 7–20 |
| TB | Q3 4:02 | 2 | 17 | Turnover | 7–20 |
| GB | Q3 3:18 | 3 | 42 | Touchdown | 14–20 |
| TB | Q3 1:46 | 6 | 19 | Opp touchdown | 21–20 |
| TB | Q4 13:43 | 8 | 43 | Punt | 21–20 |
| GB | Q4 9:40 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 21–20 |
| TB | Q4 8:30 | 9 | 30 | Field goal | 21–23 |
| GB | Q4 2:26 | 2 | 0 | Turnover | 21–23 |
| TB | Q4 2:11 | 2 | 48 | Touchdown | 21–30 |
| GB | Q4 1:56 | 4 | 6 | Turnover on downs | 21–30 |
| TB | Q4 0:43 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 21–30 |
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 14/27 | 165 | 2 | 3 |
| Matt Flynn | 2/5 | 6 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Grant | 15 | 20 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Brandon Jackson | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Griese | 15/30 | 149 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Earnest Graham | 20 | 111 | 5.5 | 1 |
| Warrick Dunn | 16 | 63 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Michael Clayton | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Brian Griese | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
2.04%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
43.0%
Expected total
45.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.52
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-3.23
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-2.26