2008 · Week 4
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 81°F · wind 5mph
Closing spread
TB -2
Total
43
Model margin
-2.3est.
TB perspective
Push chance
2.0%est.
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.051EPA / play-0.033
- 43.8%Success rate43.2%
- +0.134EPA / dropback+0.028
- -0.072EPA / rush-0.126
- 8.3%Explosive rate7.5%
- +4.24CPOE+1.84
- 44.1%Third-down rate38.9%
- 66.2%Red-zone TD rate48.9%
- 1.94Points / drive1.55
- 1.9%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TB lead 10–8 since 1999
Meetings average 41.4 points. TB are 11-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 14/27 | 165 | 2 | 3 |
| Matt Flynn | 2/5 | 6 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Grant | 15 | 20 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Brandon Jackson | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Griese | 15/30 | 149 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Earnest Graham | 20 | 111 | 5.5 | 1 |
| Warrick Dunn | 16 | 63 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Michael Clayton | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Brian Griese | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
2.04%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
43.0%
Expected total
45.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.52
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-3.23
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-2.26