Closing spread
JAX -6.5
Total
43
Model margin
+1.2est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.037EPA / play-0.004
- 45.3%Success rate44.6%
- +0.069EPA / dropback+0.013
- -0.012EPA / rush-0.032
- 9.6%Explosive rate8.0%
- +3.93CPOE+3.08
- 42.2%Third-down rate41.7%
- 52.0%Red-zone TD rate62.2%
- 1.91Points / drive1.65
- 2.9%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
HOU lead 33–16 since 1999
HOU have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.3 points. JAX are 20-28-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | HOU–JAX |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | Q1 15:00 | 6 | 17 | Punt | 0–0 |
| JAX | Q1 11:05 | 6 | 59 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| HOU | Q1 8:38 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–7 |
| JAX | Q1 7:11 | 4 | 7 | Punt | 0–7 |
| HOU | Q1 5:37 | 11 | 56 | Field goal | 3–7 |
| JAX | Q1 0:07 | 4 | 15 | Punt | 3–7 |
| HOU | Q2 11:57 | 12 | 91 | Touchdown | 10–7 |
| JAX | Q2 4:47 | 8 | 47 | Field goal | 10–10 |
| HOU | Q2 0:19 | 1 | 2 | End of half | 10–10 |
| JAX | Q3 15:00 | 7 | 76 | Touchdown | 10–17 |
| HOU | Q3 10:53 | 12 | 63 | Touchdown | 17–17 |
| JAX | Q3 5:15 | 12 | 58 | Field goal | 17–20 |
| HOU | Q4 13:40 | 12 | 95 | Touchdown | 24–20 |
| JAX | Q4 7:06 | 14 | 62 | Touchdown | 24–27 |
| HOU | Q4 1:48 | 6 | 53 | Field goal | 27–27 |
| JAX | Q4 0:01 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 27–27 |
| JAX | OT | 5 | 51 | Field goal | 27–30 |
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Schaub | 29/40 | 307 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Slaton | 10 | 33 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Matt Schaub | 5 | 24 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Chris Taylor | 8 | 22 | 2.8 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Garrard | 23/32 | 236 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Garrard | 7 | 41 | 5.9 | 1 |
| Montell Owens | 1 | 41 | 41.0 | 1 |
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 7 | 32 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Fred Taylor | 10 | 25 | 2.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
4.58%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.2%
Expected total
44.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.31
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.18