2008 · Week 4

Final

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Donovan McNabb

20·24

Bears

Chicago

QB Kyle Orton

Soldier Field · outdoors · grass · 65°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

PHI -3

Total

39

Model margin

-1.4est.

CHI perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Bears
  • Eagles

How each play moved the game.

Bears winsEagles wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Eaglesedge mapBears
  • +0.004EPA / play-0.095
  • 43.8%Success rate39.3%
  • +0.039EPA / dropback-0.083
  • -0.055EPA / rush-0.111
  • 8.3%Explosive rate7.2%
  • -1.08CPOE-3.00
  • 41.3%Third-down rate35.1%
  • 50.9%Red-zone TD rate59.3%
  • 1.73Points / drive1.70
  • 2.2%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 12–6 since 1999

CHI have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40.6 points. CHI are 9-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3PHI @ CHI7–27CHI
2025 · W13CHI @ PHI24–15CHI
2022 · W15PHI @ CHI25–20PHI
2019 · W9CHI @ PHI14–22PHI
2018 · playoffsPHI @ CHI16–15PHI
2017 · W12CHI @ PHI3–31PHI
2016 · W2PHI @ CHI29–14PHI
2013 · W16CHI @ PHI11–54PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPHI–CHI
PHIQ1 15:003-9Punt0–0
CHIQ1 14:21359Touchdown0–7
PHIQ1 13:05879Touchdown7–7
CHIQ1 8:49621Punt7–7
PHIQ1 5:4046Punt7–7
CHIQ1 3:294-1Punt7–7
PHIQ1 1:4732Punt7–7
CHIQ1 0:493-5Punt7–7
CHIQ2 14:43224Touchdown7–14
PHIQ2 13:58567Touchdown14–14
CHIQ2 11:40831Turnover14–14
PHIQ2 7:2839Missed field goal14–14
CHIQ2 5:24960Touchdown14–21
PHIQ2 1:1638Punt14–21
CHIQ2 0:2927Punt14–21
PHIQ2 0:0100End of half14–21
CHIQ3 15:0032Punt14–21
PHIQ3 14:05333Turnover14–21
CHIQ3 12:3023Turnover14–21
PHIQ3 11:4734Punt14–21
CHIQ3 10:4130Punt14–21
PHIQ3 9:1436Missed field goal14–21
CHIQ3 8:011-3Turnover14–21
PHIQ3 7:51822Field goal17–21
CHIQ3 4:2232Punt17–21
PHIQ3 2:3037Punt17–21
CHIQ3 0:4910Turnover17–21
PHIQ3 0:44518Field goal20–21
CHIQ4 13:21737Field goal20–24
PHIQ4 10:281175Turnover on downs20–24
CHIQ4 3:32619Punt20–24
PHIQ4 0:17114End of half20–24

Box score

Individual performances

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Donovan McNabb25/4126211

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Correll Buckhalter16664.11
DeSean Jackson23517.50
Lorenzo Booker273.50
Tony Hunt100.00
Donovan McNabb2-5-2.50

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kyle Orton18/3419932

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Matt Forte19432.30
Kevin Jones3165.30
Devin Hester11515.00
Marty Booker133.00
Jason McKie111.00
Kyle Orton100.00

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -32.9%4.6%3.0%7.5%7.2%2.8%4.2%

Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Eagles.

Half-point at risk

7.47%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

45.3%

Expected total

41.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.89
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.40