2008 · Week 4 · Division

Final

Chargers

San Diego

QB Philip Rivers

28·18

Raiders

Oakland

QB JaMarcus Russell

Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum · outdoors · grass · 78°F · wind 11mph

Closing spread

SD -8

Total

45.5

Model margin

+2.6est.

OAK perspective

Push chance

1.7%est.

Win probability

  • Raiders
  • Chargers

How each play moved the game.

Raiders winsChargers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

The rivalry

SD lead 33–22 since 1999

Meetings average 43.8 points. OAK are 23-31-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2LV @ LAC26–14RAIDERS
2025 · W13LV @ LAC14–31CHARGERS
2025 · W2LAC @ LV20–9CHARGERS
2024 · W18LAC @ LV34–20CHARGERS
2024 · W1LV @ LAC10–22CHARGERS
2023 · W15LAC @ LV21–63RAIDERS
2023 · W4LV @ LAC17–24CHARGERS
2022 · W13LAC @ LV20–27RAIDERS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSD–OAK
LVQ1 15:00648Field goal0–3
LACQ1 10:5734Punt0–3
LVQ1 8:5135Punt0–5
LACQ1 7:2310Safety0–5
LVQ1 7:1731Punt0–5
LACQ1 5:4733Punt0–5
LVQ1 4:46616Punt0–5
LACQ1 1:40422Punt0–5
LVQ2 14:4732Punt0–5
LACQ2 13:0833Punt0–11
LVQ2 11:32163Touchdown0–12
LACQ2 11:22226Turnover0–12
LVQ2 10:21946Field goal0–15
LACQ2 5:26927Missed field goal0–15
LVQ2 0:59318Missed field goal0–15
LACQ3 15:001270Field goal3–15
LVQ3 7:3438Punt3–15
LACQ3 6:313-5Turnover3–15
LVQ3 5:14311Turnover3–15
LACQ3 3:49961Touchdown10–15
LVQ4 14:123-5Turnover16–15
LACQ4 12:49113Touchdown18–15
LVQ4 12:473-2Punt18–15
LACQ4 11:14621Missed field goal18–15
LVQ4 8:131239Field goal18–18
LACQ4 2:4736Field goal21–18
LVQ4 1:51520Turnover on downs21–18
LACQ4 1:17244Touchdown28–18
LVQ4 1:04753End of half28–18

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -84.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%

Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Chargers.

Half-point at risk

1.70%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.0%

Expected total

44.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)0.00
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+2.57

One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.