Closing spread
NO -4
Total
48.5
Model margin
+9.9est.
NO perspective
Push chance
2.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Saints
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.056EPA / play+0.120
- 43.6%Success rate48.7%
- -0.002EPA / dropback+0.213
- -0.150EPA / rush-0.043
- 8.4%Explosive rate9.2%
- +1.59CPOE+2.69
- 37.4%Third-down rate49.2%
- 53.3%Red-zone TD rate65.5%
- 1.64Points / drive2.42
- 3.5%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 12–9 since 1999
SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 49.9 points. NO are 11-10 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.T. O'Sullivan | 18/36 | 257 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 16 | 82 | 5.1 | 0 |
| DeShaun Foster | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| J.T. O'Sullivan | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 23/35 | 363 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deuce McAllister | 20 | 73 | 3.6 | 1 |
| Reggie Bush | 10 | 31 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Pierre Thomas | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Drew Brees | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
2.35%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
74.3%
Expected total
46.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.36
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+5.09
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+9.94