2008 · Week 4 · Division
Final
Texas Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 85°F · wind 0mph
Closing spread
DAL -10
Total
47
Model margin
+1.9est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
2.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.032EPA / play-0.018
- 42.3%Success rate41.9%
- +0.004EPA / dropback-0.021
- -0.080EPA / rush-0.015
- 7.5%Explosive rate10.2%
- -1.49CPOE+3.06
- 36.0%Third-down rate43.2%
- 55.0%Red-zone TD rate67.6%
- 1.37Points / drive1.67
- 1.6%Turnover rate3.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 38–16 since 1999
DAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. DAL are 31-23 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Campbell | 20/31 | 231 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clinton Portis | 21 | 121 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Ladell Betts | 11 | 32 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Antwaan Randle El | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Jason Campbell | 4 | 3 | 0.8 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Romo | 28/47 | 300 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marion Barber | 8 | 26 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Terrell Owens | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Tony Romo | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
2.94%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.1%
Expected total
41.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.60
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.88