2008 · Week 5

Final

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

27·24

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass · 60°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

GB -5

Total

42

Model margin

+4.7est.

GB perspective

Push chance

2.0%est.

Win probability

  • Packers
  • Falcons

How each play moved the game.

Packers winsFalcons wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Falconsedge mapPackers
  • +0.066EPA / play+0.051
  • 43.0%Success rate43.8%
  • +0.161EPA / dropback+0.134
  • -0.021EPA / rush-0.072
  • 10.9%Explosive rate8.3%
  • +0.99CPOE+4.24
  • 43.3%Third-down rate44.1%
  • 55.2%Red-zone TD rate66.2%
  • 2.04Points / drive1.94
  • 1.8%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 8–8 since 1999

Meetings average 53.8 points. GB are 7-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W2GB @ ATL24–25ATL
2020 · W4ATL @ GB16–30GB
2018 · W14ATL @ GB20–34GB
2017 · W2GB @ ATL23–34ATL
2016 · playoffsGB @ ATL21–44ATL
2016 · W8GB @ ATL32–33ATL
2014 · W14ATL @ GB37–43GB
2013 · W14ATL @ GB21–22GB

Box score

Individual performances

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan16/2619421

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Michael Turner261214.71
Harry Douglas11818.00
Matt Ryan4164.00
Jerious Norwood4123.00

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers25/3731331

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ryan Grant18834.60
Brandon Jackson2115.50
Donald Driver166.00
Aaron Rodgers242.00

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +53.6%6.5%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%3.0%

Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Falcons.

Half-point at risk

1.97%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.5%

Expected total

46.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.18
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.66