Closing spread
GB -5
Total
42
Model margin
+4.7est.
GB perspective
Push chance
2.0%est.
Win probability
- Packers
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.066EPA / play+0.051
- 43.0%Success rate43.8%
- +0.161EPA / dropback+0.134
- -0.021EPA / rush-0.072
- 10.9%Explosive rate8.3%
- +0.99CPOE+4.24
- 43.3%Third-down rate44.1%
- 55.2%Red-zone TD rate66.2%
- 2.04Points / drive1.94
- 1.8%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ATL lead 9–8 since 1999
ATL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 53.5 points. GB are 7-10 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | ATL–GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | Q1 15:00 | 11 | 81 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| GB | Q1 9:53 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 7–0 |
| ATL | Q1 8:07 | 7 | 37 | Field goal | 10–0 |
| GB | Q1 4:15 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 10–0 |
| ATL | Q1 2:36 | 6 | 30 | Punt | 10–0 |
| GB | Q2 13:38 | 8 | 87 | Touchdown | 10–7 |
| ATL | Q2 9:42 | 10 | 70 | Touchdown | 17–7 |
| GB | Q2 6:02 | 7 | 25 | Missed field goal | 17–7 |
| ATL | Q2 1:10 | 5 | 22 | Punt | 17–7 |
| GB | Q2 0:04 | 1 | 1 | End of half | 17–7 |
| GB | Q3 15:00 | 12 | 49 | Punt | 17–7 |
| ATL | Q3 9:08 | 5 | 21 | Punt | 17–7 |
| GB | Q3 7:02 | 11 | 66 | Field goal | 17–10 |
| ATL | Q3 0:27 | 7 | 56 | Turnover | 17–10 |
| GB | Q4 12:16 | 4 | 80 | Touchdown | 17–17 |
| ATL | Q4 10:08 | 5 | 25 | Field goal | 20–17 |
| GB | Q4 7:19 | 8 | 18 | Turnover | 20–17 |
| ATL | Q4 4:33 | 3 | 19 | Touchdown | 27–17 |
| GB | Q4 3:35 | 7 | 72 | Touchdown | 27–24 |
| ATL | Q4 1:56 | 3 | 11 | End of half | 27–24 |
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 16/26 | 194 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Turner | 26 | 121 | 4.7 | 1 |
| Harry Douglas | 1 | 18 | 18.0 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 4 | 16 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Jerious Norwood | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 25/37 | 313 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Grant | 18 | 83 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Brandon Jackson | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Donald Driver | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
1.97%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.5%
Expected total
46.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.18
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.66