Closing spread
IND -4
Total
48
Model margin
-1.4est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Texans
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.114EPA / play+0.037
- 48.1%Success rate45.3%
- +0.230EPA / dropback+0.069
- -0.087EPA / rush-0.012
- 6.4%Explosive rate9.6%
- +4.76CPOE+3.93
- 50.8%Third-down rate42.2%
- 68.4%Red-zone TD rate52.0%
- 2.14Points / drive1.91
- 1.5%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 34–15–1 since 1999
Meetings average 45.6 points. HOU are 19-28-3 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | IND–HOU |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IND | Q1 15:00 | 8 | 45 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| HOU | Q1 9:42 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 3–0 |
| IND | Q1 7:38 | 10 | 64 | Touchdown | 10–0 |
| HOU | Q1 2:16 | 10 | 65 | Touchdown | 10–7 |
| IND | Q2 12:06 | 3 | -5 | Punt | 10–7 |
| HOU | Q2 10:30 | 6 | 50 | Field goal | 10–10 |
| IND | Q2 7:09 | 7 | 45 | Missed field goal | 10–10 |
| HOU | Q2 3:18 | 9 | 61 | Touchdown | 10–17 |
| IND | Q2 0:27 | 2 | 20 | Turnover | 10–17 |
| HOU | Q2 0:15 | 2 | 7 | End of half | 10–17 |
| HOU | Q3 15:00 | 5 | 23 | Punt | 10–17 |
| IND | Q3 12:46 | 7 | 35 | Punt | 10–17 |
| HOU | Q3 9:08 | 14 | 57 | Field goal | 10–20 |
| IND | Q3 0:21 | 5 | 17 | Punt | 10–20 |
| HOU | Q4 12:17 | 7 | 80 | Touchdown | 10–27 |
| IND | Q4 8:18 | 12 | 76 | Touchdown | 17–27 |
| HOU | Q4 4:04 | 3 | 9 | Opp touchdown | 24–27 |
| HOU | Q4 3:36 | 3 | 0 | Turnover | 24–27 |
| IND | Q4 2:36 | 2 | 20 | Touchdown | 31–27 |
| HOU | Q4 1:54 | 5 | 30 | Turnover | 31–27 |
| IND | Q4 0:42 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 31–27 |
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 25/34 | 247 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joseph Addai | 17 | 71 | 4.2 | 1 |
| Peyton Manning | 4 | 8 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Dominic Rhodes | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sage Rosenfels | 21/33 | 246 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Slaton | 16 | 93 | 5.8 | 2 |
| Ahman Green | 12 | 47 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Sage Rosenfels | 4 | 16 | 4.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
2.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
45.2%
Expected total
45.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.97
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-0.39
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin-1.43