Closing spread
IND -4
Total
48
Model margin
-1.4est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Texans
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.114EPA / play+0.037
- 48.1%Success rate45.3%
- +0.230EPA / dropback+0.069
- -0.087EPA / rush-0.012
- 6.4%Explosive rate9.6%
- +4.76CPOE+3.93
- 50.8%Third-down rate42.2%
- 68.4%Red-zone TD rate52.0%
- 2.14Points / drive1.91
- 1.5%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 33–15–1 since 1999
HOU have won 5 straight. Meetings average 45.8 points. HOU are 19-27-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 25/34 | 247 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joseph Addai | 17 | 71 | 4.2 | 1 |
| Peyton Manning | 4 | 8 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Dominic Rhodes | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sage Rosenfels | 21/33 | 246 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Slaton | 16 | 93 | 5.8 | 2 |
| Ahman Green | 12 | 47 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Sage Rosenfels | 4 | 16 | 4.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
2.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
45.2%
Expected total
45.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.97
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-0.39
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin-1.43