Closing spread
NO -3
Total
47
Model margin
+2.6est.
NO perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Saints
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.039EPA / play+0.120
- 40.9%Success rate48.7%
- +0.001EPA / dropback+0.213
- -0.081EPA / rush-0.043
- 9.0%Explosive rate9.2%
- -2.18CPOE+2.69
- 39.7%Third-down rate49.2%
- 53.5%Red-zone TD rate65.5%
- 1.59Points / drive2.42
- 2.7%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 11–7 since 1999
MIN have won 3 straight. Meetings average 51.2 points. NO are 8-10 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | MIN–NO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Q1 15:00 | 8 | 47 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| MIN | Q1 11:09 | 6 | 31 | Punt | 0–7 |
| NO | Q1 8:12 | 5 | 62 | Opp touchdown | 7–7 |
| NO | Q1 6:20 | 7 | 34 | Field goal | 7–10 |
| MIN | Q1 2:58 | 4 | -1 | Field goal | 10–10 |
| NO | Q1 0:53 | 3 | -5 | Turnover | 10–10 |
| MIN | Q2 14:51 | 4 | 0 | Touchdown | 17–10 |
| NO | Q2 13:19 | 5 | 26 | Turnover | 17–10 |
| MIN | Q2 10:59 | 6 | 18 | Punt | 17–10 |
| NO | Q2 9:19 | 12 | 87 | Turnover | 17–10 |
| MIN | Q2 3:24 | 13 | 72 | Field goal | 20–10 |
| NO | Q2 0:04 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 20–10 |
| MIN | Q3 15:00 | 5 | 23 | Punt | 20–10 |
| NO | Q3 12:14 | 6 | 16 | Punt | 20–10 |
| MIN | Q3 9:26 | 5 | 21 | Punt | 20–10 |
| NO | Q3 7:17 | 8 | 34 | Punt | 20–10 |
| MIN | Q3 3:25 | 3 | 1 | Opp touchdown | 20–17 |
| MIN | Q3 1:46 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 20–17 |
| NO | Q4 15:00 | 5 | 14 | Field goal | 20–20 |
| MIN | Q4 13:20 | 3 | 7 | Opp touchdown | 20–27 |
| MIN | Q4 11:36 | 8 | 85 | Touchdown | 27–27 |
| NO | Q4 7:10 | 9 | 60 | Missed field goal | 27–27 |
| MIN | Q4 1:58 | 6 | 9 | Field goal | 30–27 |
| NO | Q4 0:13 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 30–27 |
| MIN | Q4 0:02 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 30–27 |
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gus Frerotte | 19/36 | 222 | 1 | 0 |
| Chester Taylor | 1/1 | 4 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 21 | 32 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Chester Taylor | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Gus Frerotte | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 26/46 | 330 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reggie Bush | 12 | 29 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Deuce McAllister | 6 | 13 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Devery Henderson | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Drew Brees | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.0%
Expected total
46.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.09
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.57