2008 · Week 5

Final

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Gus Frerotte

30·27

Saints

New Orleans

QB Drew Brees

Louisiana Superdome · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

NO -3

Total

47

Model margin

+2.6est.

NO perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Saints
  • Vikings

How each play moved the game.

Saints winsVikings wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Vikingsedge mapSaints
  • -0.039EPA / play+0.120
  • 40.9%Success rate48.7%
  • +0.001EPA / dropback+0.213
  • -0.081EPA / rush-0.043
  • 9.0%Explosive rate9.2%
  • -2.18CPOE+2.69
  • 39.7%Third-down rate49.2%
  • 53.5%Red-zone TD rate65.5%
  • 1.59Points / drive2.42
  • 2.7%Turnover rate2.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 10–7 since 1999

MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 52.1 points. NO are 8-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W10NO @ MIN19–27MIN
2022 · W4MIN @ NO28–25MIN
2020 · W16MIN @ NO33–52NO
2019 · playoffsMIN @ NO26–20MIN
2018 · W8NO @ MIN30–20NO
2017 · playoffsNO @ MIN24–29MIN
2017 · W1NO @ MIN19–29MIN
2014 · W3MIN @ NO9–20NO

Box score

Individual performances

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Gus Frerotte19/3622210
Chester Taylor1/1410

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Adrian Peterson21321.50
Chester Taylor382.70
Gus Frerotte242.00

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Brees26/4633012

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Reggie Bush12292.40
Deuce McAllister6132.20
Devery Henderson177.00
Drew Brees362.00

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +34.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%2.7%

Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Vikings.

Half-point at risk

7.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.0%

Expected total

46.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.09
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.57