Closing spread
JAX -2.5
Total
40
Model margin
+0.6est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Steelers
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.108EPA / play+0.055
- 44.1%Success rate41.8%
- +0.191EPA / dropback+0.197
- +0.015EPA / rush-0.100
- 10.4%Explosive rate9.2%
- +2.15CPOE+5.79
- 47.2%Third-down rate47.9%
- 66.6%Red-zone TD rate63.2%
- 2.25Points / drive2.10
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
JAX lead 11–9 since 1999
Meetings average 37.9 points. PIT are 6-13-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | JAX–PIT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | Q1 15:00 | 10 | 65 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| JAX | Q1 10:03 | 1 | 1 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| PIT | Q1 9:39 | 5 | 19 | Punt | 7–7 |
| JAX | Q1 6:29 | 10 | 32 | Punt | 7–7 |
| PIT | Q1 0:58 | 4 | 5 | Punt | 7–7 |
| JAX | Q2 14:34 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 7–7 |
| PIT | Q2 12:25 | 5 | 32 | Opp touchdown | 14–7 |
| PIT | Q2 10:19 | 2 | -5 | Turnover | 14–7 |
| JAX | Q2 9:30 | 3 | 46 | Touchdown | 21–7 |
| PIT | Q2 8:34 | 3 | -9 | Punt | 21–7 |
| JAX | Q2 6:30 | 7 | 26 | Missed field goal | 21–7 |
| PIT | Q2 2:08 | 7 | 43 | Turnover | 21–7 |
| JAX | Q2 0:50 | 2 | 8 | End of half | 21–7 |
| JAX | Q3 15:00 | 2 | 2 | Turnover | 21–7 |
| PIT | Q3 14:09 | 7 | 33 | Field goal | 21–10 |
| JAX | Q3 9:24 | 8 | 67 | Touchdown | 28–10 |
| PIT | Q3 4:39 | 10 | 74 | Touchdown | 28–17 |
| JAX | Q4 14:53 | 3 | -12 | Punt | 28–17 |
| PIT | Q4 14:14 | 11 | 69 | Touchdown | 28–23 |
| JAX | Q4 10:25 | 3 | 5 | Turnover | 28–23 |
| PIT | Q4 8:50 | 8 | 16 | Touchdown | 28–29 |
| JAX | Q4 6:21 | 6 | 16 | Punt | 28–29 |
| PIT | Q4 3:43 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 28–29 |
| JAX | Q4 2:38 | 7 | 49 | Field goal | 31–29 |
| PIT | Q4 0:37 | 1 | -7 | Turnover | 31–29 |
| JAX | Q4 0:20 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 31–29 |
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Garrard | 9/21 | 140 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Garrard | 5 | 58 | 11.6 | 0 |
| Fred Taylor | 16 | 48 | 3.0 | 1 |
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 8 | 29 | 3.6 | 1 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 29/42 | 337 | 2 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Najeh Davenport | 16 | 25 | 1.6 | 2 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 4 | 13 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Carey Davis | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Gary Russell | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
2.10%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.6%
Expected total
46.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.98
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.58