Closing spread
NYG -6.5
Total
43.5
Model margin
+7.3est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Giants
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.057EPA / play+0.093
- 37.8%Success rate47.3%
- -0.022EPA / dropback+0.129
- -0.103EPA / rush+0.050
- 7.7%Explosive rate10.1%
- -5.09CPOE+0.84
- 31.4%Third-down rate43.7%
- 54.9%Red-zone TD rate51.8%
- 1.56Points / drive2.09
- 2.5%Turnover rate1.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 8–6 since 1999
Meetings average 42.6 points. NYG are 5-8-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 11/21 | 105 | 0 | 1 |
| Seneca Wallace | 3/6 | 20 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julius Jones | 17 | 61 | 3.6 | 0 |
| T.J. Duckett | 4 | 14 | 3.5 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 19/25 | 267 | 2 | 0 |
| David Carr | 1/1 | 5 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Jacobs | 15 | 136 | 9.1 | 2 |
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 11 | 65 | 5.9 | 0 |
| Derrick Ward | 7 | 40 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Domenik Hixon | 1 | 15 | 15.0 | 0 |
| David Carr | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
4.99%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
68.3%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.41
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+3.45
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+7.35