2008 · Week 5

Final

Titans

Tennessee

QB Kerry Collins

13·10

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Joe Flacco

M&T Bank Stadium · outdoors · sportturf · 69°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

TEN -1

Total

33.5

Model margin

+3.8est.

BAL perspective

Push chance

2.0%est.

Win probability

  • Ravens
  • Titans

How each play moved the game.

Ravens winsTitans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Titansedge mapRavens
  • -0.003EPA / play-0.018
  • 41.7%Success rate40.6%
  • +0.037EPA / dropback-0.007
  • -0.044EPA / rush-0.027
  • 9.0%Explosive rate7.9%
  • -2.44CPOE-0.33
  • 36.7%Third-down rate41.3%
  • 64.5%Red-zone TD rate50.4%
  • 1.83Points / drive1.61
  • 1.7%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 13–9 since 1999

BAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 35.3 points. BAL are 12-9-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4TEN @ BAL18–24BAL
2023 · W6BAL @ TEN24–16BAL
2020 · playoffsBAL @ TEN20–13BAL
2020 · W11TEN @ BAL30–24TEN
2019 · playoffsTEN @ BAL28–12TEN
2018 · W6BAL @ TEN21–0BAL
2017 · W9BAL @ TEN20–23TEN
2014 · W10TEN @ BAL7–21BAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTEN–BAL
TENQ1 15:00732Turnover0–0
BALQ1 11:381126Field goal0–3
TENQ1 5:5246Turnover0–3
BALQ1 3:52937Punt0–3
TENQ2 14:37926Punt0–3
BALQ2 9:4234Turnover0–3
TENQ2 8:4430Field goal3–3
BALQ2 7:5638Punt3–3
TENQ2 5:4535Punt3–3
BALQ2 3:48862Missed field goal3–3
TENQ2 0:1000End of half3–3
BALQ3 15:001158Touchdown3–10
TENQ3 9:2338Punt3–10
BALQ3 7:30731Punt3–10
TENQ3 3:061376Field goal6–10
BALQ4 12:491143Punt6–10
TENQ4 6:071360Touchdown13–10
BALQ4 1:5622Turnover13–10
TENQ4 1:243-2Punt13–10
BALQ4 0:25314End of half13–10

Box score

Individual performances

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kerry Collins17/3216312

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Johnson18442.40
LenDale White341.30
Kerry Collins1-1-1.00

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco18/2715302

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Willis McGahee22642.90
Mark Clayton199.00
Joe Flacco242.00

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -13.7%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Titans.

Half-point at risk

2.04%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.3%

Expected total

41.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.42
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+3.83