2008 · Week 5 · Division
Final
Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass · 66°F · wind 4mph
Closing spread
PHI -6.5
Total
41.5
Model margin
+5.5est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Eagles
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.032EPA / play+0.004
- 42.3%Success rate43.8%
- +0.004EPA / dropback+0.039
- -0.080EPA / rush-0.055
- 7.5%Explosive rate8.3%
- -1.49CPOE-1.08
- 36.0%Third-down rate41.3%
- 55.0%Red-zone TD rate50.9%
- 1.37Points / drive1.73
- 1.6%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 35–21 since 1999
Meetings average 45.6 points. PHI are 27-26-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Campbell | 16/29 | 176 | 0 | 0 |
| Antwaan Randle El | 1/1 | 18 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clinton Portis | 29 | 145 | 5.0 | 1 |
| Ladell Betts | 9 | 44 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Jason Campbell | 6 | 14 | 2.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Sellers | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 17/29 | 196 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Westbrook | 12 | 33 | 2.8 | 1 |
| DeSean Jackson | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Reggie Brown | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Tony Hunt | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Correll Buckhalter | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
4.96%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.5%
Expected total
40.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.97
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.46