2008 · Week 5 · Division
Final
Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass · 66°F · wind 4mph
Closing spread
PHI -6.5
Total
41.5
Model margin
+5.5est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Eagles
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.032EPA / play+0.004
- 42.3%Success rate43.8%
- +0.004EPA / dropback+0.039
- -0.080EPA / rush-0.055
- 7.5%Explosive rate8.3%
- -1.49CPOE-1.08
- 36.0%Third-down rate41.3%
- 55.0%Red-zone TD rate50.9%
- 1.37Points / drive1.73
- 1.6%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 35–21 since 1999
Meetings average 45.6 points. PHI are 27-26-3 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | WAS–PHI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | Q1 15:00 | 12 | 80 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| WAS | Q1 8:26 | 3 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 0–14 |
| WAS | Q1 7:47 | 5 | 16 | Punt | 0–14 |
| PHI | Q1 5:12 | 10 | 39 | Missed field goal | 0–14 |
| WAS | Q1 0:23 | 6 | 37 | Field goal | 3–14 |
| PHI | Q2 12:00 | 4 | 25 | Punt | 3–14 |
| WAS | Q2 10:15 | 14 | 67 | Field goal | 6–14 |
| PHI | Q2 1:56 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 6–14 |
| WAS | Q2 0:55 | 8 | 50 | Field goal | 9–14 |
| PHI | Q2 0:02 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 9–14 |
| WAS | Q3 15:00 | 5 | 37 | Punt | 9–14 |
| PHI | Q3 12:22 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 9–14 |
| WAS | Q3 11:35 | 7 | 75 | Touchdown | 16–14 |
| PHI | Q3 8:08 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 16–14 |
| WAS | Q3 6:34 | 9 | 21 | Punt | 16–14 |
| PHI | Q3 2:54 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 16–14 |
| WAS | Q3 1:47 | 6 | 43 | Touchdown | 23–14 |
| PHI | Q4 14:54 | 11 | 86 | Field goal | 23–17 |
| WAS | Q4 7:18 | 10 | 45 | End of half | 23–17 |
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Campbell | 16/29 | 176 | 0 | 0 |
| Antwaan Randle El | 1/1 | 18 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clinton Portis | 29 | 145 | 5.0 | 1 |
| Ladell Betts | 9 | 44 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Jason Campbell | 6 | 14 | 2.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Sellers | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 17/29 | 196 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Westbrook | 12 | 33 | 2.8 | 1 |
| DeSean Jackson | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Reggie Brown | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Tony Hunt | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Correll Buckhalter | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
4.96%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.5%
Expected total
40.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.97
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.46