2023 · Week 4 · Division
Final / OT
Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass
Closing spread
PHI -9.5
Total
43
Model margin
+4.3est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Eagles
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.084EPA / play+0.061
- 41.9%Success rate46.3%
- -0.069EPA / dropback+0.106
- -0.119EPA / rush-0.007
- 8.0%Explosive rate8.5%
- +0.32CPOE+3.86
- 35.6%Third-down rate47.5%
- 66.6%Red-zone TD rate61.4%
- 1.53Points / drive2.30
- 2.7%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 35–21 since 1999
Meetings average 45.6 points. PHI are 27-26-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Howell | 29/41 | 290 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Robinson | 14 | 45 | 3.2 | 1 |
| Sam Howell | 6 | 40 | 6.7 | 0 |
| Antonio Gibson | 6 | 19 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Logan Thomas | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Curtis Samuel | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry McLaurin | 8 | 10 | 86 | 0 |
| Curtis Samuel | 7 | 8 | 51 | 0 |
| Dyami Brown | 2 | 3 | 51 | 0 |
| Logan Thomas | 3 | 3 | 41 | 0 |
| Jahan Dotson | 4 | 9 | 27 | 1 |
| Byron Pringle | 1 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Antonio Gibson | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| John Bates | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Brian Robinson | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 25/37 | 319 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D'Andre Swift | 14 | 56 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Jalen Hurts | 9 | 34 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Kenny Gainwell | 4 | 14 | 3.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Brown | 9 | 13 | 175 | 2 |
| DeVonta Smith | 7 | 9 | 78 | 0 |
| Dallas Goedert | 2 | 4 | 25 | 0 |
| D'Andre Swift | 4 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Kenny Gainwell | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
3.20%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.6%
Expected total
46.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.70
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+4.32