2023 · Week 4 · Division

Final / OT

Commanders

Washington

QB Sam Howell

31·34

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Jalen Hurts

Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass

Closing spread

PHI -9.5

Total

43

Model margin

+4.3est.

PHI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Commanders

Eagles

Win probability

  • Eagles
  • Commanders

How each play moved the game.

Eagles winsCommanders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Commandersedge mapEagles
  • -0.084EPA / play+0.061
  • 41.9%Success rate46.3%
  • -0.069EPA / dropback+0.106
  • -0.119EPA / rush-0.007
  • 8.0%Explosive rate8.5%
  • +0.32CPOE+3.86
  • 35.6%Third-down rate47.5%
  • 66.6%Red-zone TD rate61.4%
  • 1.53Points / drive2.30
  • 2.7%Turnover rate2.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 35–21 since 1999

Meetings average 45.6 points. PHI are 27-26-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1WAS @ PHI22–24PHI
2025 · W18WAS @ PHI24–17WAS
2025 · W16PHI @ WAS29–18PHI
2024 · playoffsWAS @ PHI23–55PHI
2024 · W16PHI @ WAS33–36WAS
2024 · W11WAS @ PHI18–26PHI
2023 · W8PHI @ WAS38–31PHI
2022 · W10WAS @ PHI32–21WAS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultWAS–PHI
WASQ1 15:001475Touchdown7–0
PHIQ1 7:521265Touchdown7–7
WASQ1 1:17867Touchdown14–7
PHIQ2 12:56624Punt14–7
WASQ2 10:143-6Punt14–7
PHIQ2 7:533-3Punt14–7
WASQ2 6:061156Field goal17–7
PHIQ2 1:39752Field goal17–10
PHIQ3 15:00845Field goal17–13
WASQ3 11:3856Punt17–13
PHIQ3 9:24569Touchdown17–21
WASQ3 7:11612Punt17–21
PHIQ3 4:141046Field goal17–24
WASQ4 14:151265Touchdown24–24
PHIQ4 8:01426Punt24–24
WASQ4 6:28621Punt24–24
PHIQ4 3:20657Touchdown24–31
WASQ4 1:431064Touchdown31–31
WASOT35Punt31–31
PHIOT934Field goal31–34

Box score

Individual performances

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Sam Howell29/4129010

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Brian Robinson14453.21
Sam Howell6406.70
Antonio Gibson6193.20
Logan Thomas122.00
Curtis Samuel111.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Terry McLaurin810860
Curtis Samuel78510
Dyami Brown23510
Logan Thomas33410
Jahan Dotson49271
Byron Pringle12150
Antonio Gibson1170
John Bates1160
Brian Robinson2260

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jalen Hurts25/3731920

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
D'Andre Swift14564.01
Jalen Hurts9343.80
Kenny Gainwell4143.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
A.J. Brown9131752
DeVonta Smith79780
Dallas Goedert24250
D'Andre Swift44230
Olamide Zaccheaus12110
Kenny Gainwell2270

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +9.56.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Commanders.

Half-point at risk

3.20%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

60.6%

Expected total

46.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.70
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+4.32